The geopolitical game of snakes and ladders is often defined by sudden ascents of power followed by equally dramatic declines. Few regions illustrate this better than Iran, and its long, layered history is shaped by religion, empire, and external intervention. The Twelver Shi’i tradition, distinct from the Zaidi (Fivers) and Ismaili (Seveners), holds that the twelfth Imam did not die but entered a state of occultation.
Followers believe that this hidden Imam, known as the Mahdi, remains in spiritual communion with God and continues to guide humanity in unseen ways. While the concept of the Mahdi exists in Sunni Islam as well, it occupies a far more central and institutional role within Twelver Shi’ism. Today, the majority of Iranians adhere to this branch, making it the dominant form of Shi’i belief in the modern world.
The roots of this dominance can be traced back to the Safavid dynasty. Emerging in the late 15th century, the Safavids transformed from a Sufi order into a powerful political movement. Their followers, the Qizilbash, wore distinctive red headgear with twelve folds symbolizing devotion to the twelve Imams. This symbolism was not merely religious—it became the ideological foundation of a new Persian state.
Before Safavid consolidation, Persia had endured devastating invasions by Genghis Khan in the 13th century and Timur in the 14th century. These invasions shattered centralized authority, leaving the region fragmented into smaller principalities ruled largely by Sunni Turkic chieftains. It was in this fractured landscape that the Safavid order began to rise.
In 1488, one such ruler moved decisively against the Safavids, ordering the execution of their leader. His elder son was also killed, but the younger son, Ismail, barely two years old, was smuggled away by loyal Qizilbash followers. For years, the child lived in hiding, moving from one safe location to another. During this period, a mythos developed around him—he was not merely a political heir but a figure believed by many to possess divine favor.
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By the time Ismail emerged from concealment in his early teens, he commanded a fiercely loyal following. At around the age of 12, he launched a campaign of conquest. Within a few short years, he defeated rival rulers and, in 1501, captured Tabriz. There, he declared himself Shahanshah, or “King of Kings,” consciously rejecting the more universal Islamic title of Caliph.
This marked not only the birth of the Safavid Empire but also the formal establishment of Twelver Shi’ism as the state religion of Iran—a decision that permanently reshaped the religious map of the Middle East. Fast forward several centuries to the 20th century, when Iran once again underwent a dramatic transformation under the Pahlavi dynasty. Reza Shah Pahlavi, a former officer in the Cossack Brigade, rose to power in 1925 and adopted the ancient title of Shahanshah.
His rule emphasized modernization and centralization, but it was his son, Mohammad Reza Shah, who became deeply entangled in Cold War geopolitics. In 1953, a pivotal moment occurred when Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh nationalized Iran’s oil industry, challenging British economic dominance. In response, the United States and the United Kingdom orchestrated Operation Ajax, a covert operation led by the CIA and MI6 that resulted in Mossadegh’s overthrow and the restoration of the Shah’s authority.
This intervention entrenched Western influence in Iran but also sowed deep resentment among the Iranian populace. The Shah maintained close ties with the United States, receiving regular intelligence briefings and relying heavily on Western support. With assistance from Israeli intelligence, he established SAVAK, a secret police force tasked with suppressing dissent. SAVAK became notorious for its harsh methods, contributing to widespread fear and anger within Iran.
By the late 1970s, these tensions reached a breaking point. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution toppled the Shah and replaced the monarchy with an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The revolutionaries viewed the United States as a primary adversary, culminating in the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran, which they labeled the “Nest of Spies.”
This event cemented decades of hostility between Iran and the West. The new Islamic Republic re-centered Iranian identity around Twelver Shi’ism, drawing heavily on themes of martyrdom, resistance, and spiritual authority. Over time, Iran developed a complex political system combining clerical oversight with republican institutions.
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In recent years, geopolitical tensions have once again intensified. Israel has consistently opposed Iran’s nuclear ambitions, fearing the emergence of a regional rival with nuclear capabilities. Efforts to curb Iran’s program have included cyber operations such as the Stuxnet attack, as well as the targeted killing of nuclear scientists and military officials. This strategy mirrors earlier actions, such as Israel’s 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor, which was carried out to prevent Saddam Hussein from developing nuclear weapons.
Israel’s broader objective has remained consistent: to ensure that no hostile state in the region acquires nuclear capability. Iran, for its part, has argued that its nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), negotiated under the Obama administration, sought to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
However, the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under President Donald Trump, reigniting tensions. Since then, the situation has become increasingly volatile. Iranian leadership has shifted toward a more hardline stance, with closer alignment to countries such as Russia and China. Meanwhile, rhetoric from the United States has grown more aggressive, with threats of severe military action.
The assassination of key Iranian figures has further escalated tensions, raising questions about the future direction of the country’s nuclear policy. While earlier religious rulings discouraged the development of nuclear weapons, the evolving strategic environment may alter those calculations.
Today, Iran finds itself at a crossroads—caught between internal pressures and external threats. The United States and its allies, meanwhile, face the challenge of containing Iran without triggering a broader conflict. As history has repeatedly shown, actions taken in pursuit of control often lead to unintended consequences. The metaphor of snakes and ladders remains apt.
Each move on the geopolitical board can bring rapid gains or sudden setbacks. What appears to be a strategic victory may later reveal itself as the start of a new crisis. As Winston Churchill once observed, when leaders embark on war, they often cease to be masters of policy and instead become prisoners of unfolding events.
Whether Iran’s current trajectory represents a dead end or another turn in its long historical journey remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the game is far from over.
*The views presented in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Diplomatic Insight.
Idrees Khan
Idrees Khan holds a BS(Hons) degree in Government and Public Policy and is an alumnus of the SUSI exchange program at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Currently, he is serving as Azerbaijan Youth ministry representative.
