Dushanbe (TDI): Tajikistan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 8.4 percent in 2025, driven by favorable trade and investment dynamics, rising gold export prices, and decreasing energy import costs, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
This optimistic prediction surpasses the Tajik government’s minimum expectation of 8.0 percent growth.
The EDB predicts that inflation will rise to 5.9 percent this year, returning to the National Bank of Tajikistan’s target range of 6.0 percent (+/- 2 percentage points) by the end of the year.
Observers attribute this inflationary uptick to strong domestic demand.
In 2024, Tajikistan recorded a historic low inflation rate of 3.6 percent – the lowest since the country’s independence.
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However, a slight increase in the refinancing rate, by 1 percentage point, is likely as inflation adjusts back to the target range.
The refinancing rate has remained at 9.0 percent since August 5, 2024.
The EDB also forecasts a slight devaluation of Tajikistan’s national currency somoni, with the exchange rate likley to reach 11 somoni per US dollar by the end of 2025.
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This adjustment is attributed to higher imports and a decline in remittance volumes.
Presently, the somoni trades at 10.9450 per dollar, reflecting a 0.2 percent appreciation against the dollar in 2024, according to data from the National Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
