Pretoria, 25 February 2022 (TDI): Alongside Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wheat and other crops are once again at the forefront of geopolitics. In the global agriculture market, both nations play a significant role. Leaders in Africa must pay notice.
African countries would import agricultural goods from Russia worth $4 billion. Similarly, Ukraine exported agricultural goods worth $2.9 billion to Africa in 2020. Wheat made up around 48% of this, maize 31%, while sunflower oil, barley, and soybeans made up the balance.
The African continent, which is a net importer of wheat and sunflower oil, is concerned about this. Furthermore, there are concerns about droughts in various parts of the continent. The disruption of commodity shipments would add to the widespread fear of food price increases in an area that imports wheat.
The impact of the conflict on African agriculture will be seen in the near future through the global agricultural commodities pricing channel.
Some African countries, such as South Africa, gain from fruit exports to Russia. In terms of value, Russia accounted for 7% of South Africa’s citrus exports in 2020. In the same year, it accounted for 12% of South Africa’s apple and pear exports, making it the country’s second-largest market.
Russia and Ukraine’s agricultural imports from Africa, on the other hand, are negligible, averaging about US$1.6 billion over the last three years. Fruits, tobacco, coffee, and drinks are the most popular items in both nations.
There’s still a lot that is to be determined about the geopolitical issues that will eventually surface. However, considering their reliance on grain imports, African countries have reason to be concerned.
In the short term, nations will most likely notice the impact in the form of a price increase rather than a scarcity of goods. Trade disruptions caused by the invasion in the Black Sea’s major producing region would contribute to higher worldwide agricultural commodity prices, with potential knock-on repercussions for global food prices.
Just days after the crisis began, commodity prices began to soar. As long as, Russia’s military activity, the danger is that escalating war would impede commerce, posing a serious threat to world food security.
