On October 6, the French Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu resigned after a month of assuming office. The resignation, accepted by the French President Emmanuel Macron, is the fifth since his narrow win in the 2022 presidential elections.
The move has resumed the political crisis that has gripped France since 2022 and exposed the isolation of Macron’s once mighty centrist alliance.
With both the far-right and the far-left refusing to compromise in a hung parliament over the key issue of fiscal policy, the deadlock, if prolonged, could lead to a Eurozone crisis and might even jeopardize the future of the European Union (EU) itself.
The Failure of Centrism in Europe
The political crisis in France is not an isolated event but part of a broader European trend of the failure of centrist politics. The parliaments across Europe have witnessed the surge of far-right politicians since the financial crisis of 2008.
The big breakthrough for far-right populism, however, came in the backdrop of Brexit with the triumph of Euroscepticism in Britain. The departure of Britain, one of the big 3 in the EU, executed successfully by the British far-right by capitalizing on the culture wars, provided an impetus for a disgruntled far-right on the continent.
For decades now, European politics has been dominated by centrist politics. The centrist experiment, however, failed miserably in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis but continued to live on borrowed time against the resentment of the populace.
This resentment got further aggravated by the cost-of-living crisis, the housing crisis, and the immigration crisis that has engulfed Europe since 2015. The situation became more precarious as energy prices soared in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and became untenable after Israel’s invasion of Gaza which divided Europe along partisan lines.
All of these grievances have contributed to the declining popularity of the centrist political parties and politicians, which made room for populists on both sides of the political spectrum to rise.
Ascendancy of the Hung Parliament
This brings us to the political crisis in France, where the center has lost dominance and is being squeezed from both sides of the spectrum. The result is a hung parliament with no ideological coherence and unwilling to make a compromise.
Though it might have reached an extreme in France, this trend, however, will not remain unique to France. In fact, this trend is likely to sweep most EU states in the upcoming years. This is partly because of the irreconcilable ideological differences between the parties of the left and the right and partly due to the rise of post-truth populism on both sides that incentivizes partisanship.
The situation, however, is not sustainable and might culminate in a popular disillusionment with the democratic process. With the rise of anti-democratic tech oligarchy in the US and the killer efficiency of Chinese state capitalism providing an alternative to growth, the idea of the end of liberal and socially democratic Europe is not a far fetch.
The Rise of the Right and the Future of the EU
So, who will replace Macron and his centrist Renaissance Party? Though the far-left alliance holds considerable seats in the parliament, like many other left parties of Europe, they lack a coherent plan that is easily understandable by the general public that addresses their woes.
Moreover, their anti-growth agenda and less favorable taxation policies toward the wealthy and their corporations are also likely to invite the wrath of the rich. The rich, like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Rupert Murdoch, who own stakes in large media corporations, are also likely to return the favor by manufacturing consent for the far-right.
Hence, this brings us to the only place where the general populace gets a coherent vision of a desirable future, the far-right. The far-right offers a straightforward answer to all their woes – immigration. They tell them, the problem is not the rising cost of living, the immense wealth inequality, or the overturning of social services.
It is the people of different color or religion who are responsible for all your problems. Give us your vote and we will solve this by cultural revival, mass deportations, and an end to immigration. And given the support of the media establishment, far-right is also more likely to convince the people.
Therefore, after the era of hung parliaments ends, it will be the far-right reigning the future of Europe. This will, without doubt, influence the essence of the European Union as a supranational union itself.
Though the absolute triumph of euroscepticism and complete breakdown of the EU is unlikely in the near future, at least as long as it is dictated by the logic of capitalism, we might be looking forward to a less liberal and more nationalistic, less open and more xenophobic, and less democratic and more authoritarian European Union.
Muhammad Omer Rafiq
Muhammad Omer Rafiq is a student of politics with a passion for making sense of our tumultuous political world that always seems to be on the edge. He recently graduated in International Relations from Lahore Garrison University. He can be reached at muhammadomerrafiq@gmail.com
