Faryal Qazi
Graveyard of empires yet again buried the pride of another superpower in its soil and sent it back in a casket of ‘peace deal’ that helped the USA a little to save the remains of its pride as a superpower.
Nonetheless, the Taliban’s resumption of power in Kabul on August 15, 2021, was widely seen as a strategic win for Pakistan and China and is rightly so.
Both the countries welcomed Taliban rule and are actively helping it find legitimacy in the global world and supporting it economically to restore stability in the region.
Sino-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan is a recent front of collaboration between the ‘iron brothers.’ Initially, the scope of the China-Pakistan strategic partnership was limited to countering India in the region.
However, in recent years both countries expanded their scope and began a new venture of cooperation in bringing peace and stability to Afghanistan through economic and trade cooperation with the country.
Afghan Peace Process
The Afghan peace process is a years-long process that was kicked start during the Obama era when Pakistan initiated the Quadrilateral Cooperation Group (QCG) in 2016 to solve the Afghan issue. This Group included USA, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China the first time who directly participated in an Afghan issue.
However, this first round of Peace efforts failed due to the US policy of pressuring the Taliban with force to negotiate with the Afghan government and the bitterness between Kabul and Islamabad.
During this first round of peace efforts, China, and Pakistan both complemented each other’s efforts.
In 2018, with the beginning of the second round of the Afghan peace process, the new venture of Sino-Pakistan cooperation began with the alignment of both countries’ policies on Afghanistan.
In this second round of the peace deal, both China and Pakistan shifted away from their old Afghan policies where Pakistan was looking for ‘strategic depth in Afghanistan and was supporting ‘selected groups’ while China was reluctant to involve directly and actively in Afghan affairs.
The new Afghan policy of both countries was becoming aligned in 2018 when Pakistan adopted the stance not to support ‘one group’ over ‘another and supported international peace efforts in Afghanistan.
Whereas China also began engaging directly and actively in Afghan affairs to ensure stability in the region and to keep its strategic and economic interests.
Geo-strategically Afghanistan is vital for China to prevent the spillover of religious extremism that may encourage separatist elements in Xinjiang.
Xinjiang is significant for China’s massive infrastructure and communication networks like the Silk Road Economic Belt Project connecting China with CARs, or the Eurasian Corridor where six out of eight Sino-Europe railways start from Xinjiang.
Additionally, stability in Afghanistan is directly related to the region’s stability that can affect the development of China’s BRI projects. Two out of six corridors are under construction in this region (China-Central-Asia-West-Asia-Corridor and CPEC), and both are in proximity to Afghanistan.
For Pakistan, its western neighbor has always posed a threat to its national security. There are significant reports about the ‘Anti-Pakistan’ elements operating from Afghanistan. Recently both states have agreed to counter such insurgencies originating from Afghanistan. There are also proxies operating in Balochistan.
Pakistan played a crucial role in convincing the Trump administration to initiate a peace process in 2018. Pakistan also used its clout and leverage on the Afghan Taliban to bring them to the negotiating table with the USA.
By 2019 both Taliban and USA had agreed to the initial framework of the agreements and by early 2020 USA and Taliban had already signed the deal.
This three-year process was no easy feat as the differences between the parties were irreconcilable and often resulted in the discontinuation of talks on many occasions. To facilitate the peace talks Pakistan also released prominent Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar who showed a pro-peace stance and played a constructive role in the process.
Whereas China played a determining role in keeping the region stable by becoming the mediator between Kabul and Islamabad to mitigate mistrust and encourage a peaceful atmosphere in the region to facilitate a peace deal.
Chinese efforts were largely focused on dealing with the Afghan Taliban, the Afghan government, and Pakistan.
In addition to its diplomatic efforts, China’s economic efforts are also immense. It is constructing road in Afghanistan leading to the Wakhan corridor that will connect China with three other countries and thus, increase the regional connectivity.
China is also willing to include Afghanistan in CPEC, in a recent visit of China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Kabul he discussed the prospects for Afghanistan in CPEC.
Sino-Pak cooperation did not end with the Taliban takeover of Kabul, but both are still working together to help Afghanistan combat its worst humanitarian and economic crisis.
After the Taliban assumed power, China was the very first country to respond and grant humanitarian aid worth 200 million Yuan. It is also organizing multilateral level global meetings with the Afghan Taliban delegation to get them legitimacy and gather support for rebuilding Afghanistan.
In this regard, China organized the ‘Tunxi initiative’ in March this year that included neighboring countries of Afghanistan who agreed to build an economic Belt to improve its development and also discussed its humanitarian crisis.
While on the other hand, Pakistan is rallying international efforts to unfreeze Afghan assets and lift sanctions to help with Afghan rebuilding.
Sino-Pakistan cooperation is a success overall for both countries. China has secured a strategic advantage for its economic interests in Afghanistan, it is investing in the mining sector and is looking forward to welcoming Kabul in CPEC.
It also has guarantees for Xinjiang from the Taliban. However, the Taliban takeover is proving challenging for Pakistan in some areas, but prospects for the future seem fruitful.
Tensions at the Waziristan border are increasing since the start of this year about 97 Pakistani soldiers have been killed in a cross-border attack by TTP.
Though the negotiations between TTP and Pakistan have started again after remaining stalled in December last year. Even then the tension at the border remains serious.
Additionally, the Afghan Taliban have also rejuvenated the Durand line issue.
Durand’s line is a decades-old contentious dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is a de-jure border between both the countries that was delimited in the nineteenth century by Sir Henry Mortimer Durand and Emir of Afghanistan Abdur Rahman Khan.
However, the ethnic Pashtun population living near the Durand line and Afghanistan rejects this demarcation. Similarly, after the Taliban took power in Afghanistan their interim information Minister Zabiullah Mujahid remarked that the “issue of Durand line is unresolved.”
Moreover, the Taliban erected Pakistan’s fence installations at the border, claiming that they were inside Afghan territory. A
According to the official reports of Pakistan it had completed fencing 90% of the Durand Line which is about 2600 km, despite strong opposition from Afghanistan.
Whereas, in January this year Pakistan’s interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed announced that the remaining 10% which is about 21 km of the border would be fenced “with the consent of our brother,” addressing the Taliban.
Additionally, with the Taliban in power both China and Pakistan hoped to gain an ally for the peace and prosperity in the region.
However, a recent interview of Afghanistan’s Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob with an Indian News channel remarked that Afghanistan has ‘no issues with sending its army personnel for training in India”.
This statement came as a huge development when Pakistan and China are endeavoring to rebuild Afghanistan and hoping to gain a strategic ally in the region.
Any friendly and especially military ties of the Afghan Taliban with India will undermine the strategic and security interests of Pakistan and the economic and strategic interests of China.
* The writer is an independent analyst
*The views expressed in this article do not reflect the position of the institution and are the writer’s own research and figures.
