On 30th August 2021, the United States Armed Forces completed their withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 long years of unsuccessful state building. The horrific scenes from the Kabul International Airport of Afghans desperately trying to ensure their departure from the country were reminiscent of the fall of Saigon in 1975 and symbolized the end of US presence in the region.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, however, did not just impact Afghanistan but changed the course of regional and global geopolitics entirely. The glory of the Taliban regime, though condemned globally, was nonetheless celebrated within Pakistan, which, over the years, emerged as the most fervent supporter of the regime. Therefore, no other neighboring country felt the impact of US withdrawal as much as Pakistan.
Making Oneself Redundant
Though the Pakistani establishment had long given up the dreams of an Afghan client state under the Taliban, their return in 2021 was nevertheless a sigh of relief against the fears of Indian influence in Afghanistan under the Ghani administration. However, the return of the Taliban and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan also made Pakistan redundant for Washington and other major Western capitals.
With the United States pivoting to Asia, the geopolitical clout that Pakistan once enjoyed now shifted towards India as it emerged as a democratic ally of the United States to contain the rise of China. In this geopolitical climate, Pakistan did not just lose the status of a major non-NATO US ally but also its relevance in the great power politics.
This became apparent during the Biden administration when the US president called Pakistan “one of the most dangerous nations of the world, which has nuclear weapons without any cohesion”. The remark truly reflected the utter apathy of the United States with regard to the future of US-Pakistan relations.
However, in this moment of isolation, when no major power in the world (with the exception of China) had any interest in exploiting Pakistan’s strategic location for their own gains, when the country was mired in an existential political crisis and economic uncertainty and was also being devastated by the biggest floods in decades while suffering from insurgencies in two provinces, Pakistan could have had a moment of pause to reflect: how did we get here?
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What Do You Have to Offer?
It was clear during that difficult time that Pakistan had failed to develop as a modern state. Since independence, Pakistan has suffered from political and economic instability. No prime minister in the country has been able to complete their term in office, and Pakistan is one of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) highest debtor countries. Moreover, Pakistan has also failed to develop its human capital. The country boasts one of the lowest literacy rates in the world, with the highest number of children out of school being a cherry on top.
As for the country’s institutions, most are perceived as corrupt and predatory by the vast majority of the population. Apart from the military, which itself is guilty of encroaching on the autonomy of other institutions, no other institution has been successful in modernizing itself or ending corruption, be it the judiciary, the police, the bureaucracy, or the election commission. Nevertheless, all of the state institutions have, from time to time, disgraced themselves in one scandal or another, leading many to question their legitimacy.
This mix of myriad troubles left the people no other choice but to look for dignity abroad. Though the brain drain had affected Pakistan since independence, the 4 years between 2021 and 2025 witnessed the highest number of educated and skilled Pakistanis leaving the country. Though many analysts have claimed that the brain drain in Pakistan is due to the flailing economy, the overwhelming number of people leaving at a time of intense political discord suggests that it wasn’t just the economics that was bothering people, but also the complete disregard for the will of the people by the powers that be.
The migration of a large chunk of the population coincided with the dwindling Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), exit of multinational companies, freefall of the rupee, and irrelevance at the global stage. However, the rallying cry of the time was blaming the United States and Europe for our own shortcomings. Usually, these arguments went along the lines of “after all the sacrifices we have made for 20 years fighting America’s war, America has repaid the favor by aligning with India”. Watching the United States, Europe, Russia, Japan, and Israel standing beside India may have been tough, but these states weren’t there for ideological reasons but simply because India had so much to offer these states.
In this respect, Pakistanis leaving the country and the global powers backtracking from fostering relations were essentially asking Pakistan the same question: What do you have to offer? The answer, of course, was not much.
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Enter Sindoor
Every crisis presents an opportunity, and the political and economic crises between 2021 and 2025 presented Pakistan an opportunity to rethink and reimagine Pakistan in a new light that could reshape its future. The international isolation and humiliation could have motivated a national reawakening toward a more egalitarian, meritocratic, and democratic Pakistan. However, on the 7th of May, India launched Operation Sindoor, a legally vacuous and morally reprehensible attack on Pakistan that claimed the lives of 31 innocent civilians. Nevertheless, India got a befitting reply from the armed forces of Pakistan, and by the time the operation was over, Pakistan had captured the headlines across the globe by downing five Indian Rafale jets.
Within weeks, Pakistan made a comeback on the global stage. Global powers like the US and Russia started expressing interest in making critical rare earth deals with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia signed a mutual security pact with Pakistan, and Pakistan’s longtime but recently disgruntled friends like China, the UAE, and Qatar also assured their support for Pakistan. The biggest breakthrough for Pakistan, nonetheless, came after getting the US president’s attention by staging a successful diplomatic maneuver of nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Since then, Pakistan has been able to secure a number of investments and low tariffs from the United States.
However, despite the fact that Pakistan’s flattery has been successful in catering to Trump’s ego, it is not a substitute for Pakistan’s long-term internal and external policy issues, which stem from domestic turmoil. Though the recent successes on the military front should not be disregarded, as they are definitely hard-earned, they have not changed the fundamental realities of Pakistan mentioned above. Moreover, just as easily Trump has put Pakistan under the limelight, as easily he can take the limelight away.
Regardless, Pakistan’s media landscape was quick to hype a fragile comeback that stood on the weak foundation of flattery rather than well thought-out strategy. India, on the other hand, despite the momentary humiliation of Balakot and Sindoor, is nevertheless on the trajectory to become a global power. Already the 5th largest economy with a robust tradition of pluralism, diversity, and democracy, India is set to challenge China on every front. The growing nationalism among Indians is a testament to an India that is working for most, if not all, Indians.
On the contrary, Pakistan has shied away from serious reform again. With the success of defense against Sindoor providing an illusion of a comeback, it seems that Pakistan has found global relevance again, albeit for a moment. However, it will not be long before Pakistan realizes that beyond the optics of triumphalism, it has nothing to show for. When that moment comes, it is essential for us to remember that without serious reform in the political and economic structure, Pakistan will keep repeating the same cycle of chaos.
*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of TDI.
Muhammad Omer Rafiq
Muhammad Omer Rafiq is a student of politics with a passion for making sense of our tumultuous political world that always seems to be on the edge. He recently graduated in International Relations from Lahore Garrison University. He can be reached at muhammadomerrafiq@gmail.com
