HomeNewsDiplomatic NewsUpcoming QUAD Meeting: What to Expect from it?

Upcoming QUAD Meeting: What to Expect from it?

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Faryal Qazi

In a press release by the White House earlier this week President Joe Biden invited QUAD leaders for the first in-person meeting in Washington. The leaders of four countries namely the Prime Minister of Australia Steve Scott, Prime Minister of Japan Yoshihide Suga and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi will be meeting President Biden this week on 24th September.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, famous as QUAD is the informal security Dialogue between Australia, the USA, Japan, and India united against China in the Indo-Pacific region. Since its formation in 2007, the group has largely remained dormant with a vague outlook.
However, with the Biden administration in office, the security alliance has received a boost. Since January 2021, the members of QUAD had already met two times. The first meeting was hosted by Tokyo in February 2021 that was attended by the Foreign Ministers of the member states, this was followed by the leaders of member states meeting in a virtual meeting in March 2021. Now, the third high-profile first-ever in-person meeting is scheduled to take place this week in Washington.
In view of the recent events including the US withdrawal from Afghanistan that has left India in a difficult position in the region, EU’s shifting focus in Indo-Pacific, the UK’s security alliance with the US and Australia in the region, and the 76th UNGA session in New York the timing of this high-profile meeting of QUAD leaders is very crucial. All these developments raise questions of what objectives and strategies will underline the upcoming QUAD meeting, and what new possible developments we can see in the Indo-Pacific that is now ‘new’ focused region of the world’s major powers after the Middle East and Afghanistan.
Alternative Supply Chains
In a virtual meeting of QUAD-in March 2021, the initiative to set up a vaccine supply chain was adopted that would be expanded to renewable technology and climate change. By setting up these supply chains QUAD is actually aiming to set up global supply chains of lead sectors that China is currently leading or can lead in the future. Some of these key sectors include the semi-conductors supply chain and the rare earth metals. The initiative aims to ‘contain’ China economically, a typical move from the cold war times.
This is also evident from the draft of a joint document released by Nikkei that QUAD leaders in the coming meeting will discuss the new supply chains of semi-conductors. Currently, China is rapidly building its capacity in semiconductors while it already dominates the rare earth metals supply chain. Semiconductors and rare earth metals both are vital components used for electronic devices, defense technology, electric vehicles, and chip manufacturing.
The vulnerabilities of current global supply chains as revealed by Pandemic and the mistrust of Chinese tech as created by the USA has already convinced many industries and countries to diversify their supply chains, especially from China. Thus, in this tech politics, the new supply chains under QUAD will have good chances to thrive.
On the other hand, another aspirant for anchoring ‘new’ semiconductor supply chain is Europe. In the EU’s recently leaked draft of the Indo-Pacific strategy reported by Nikkei, it has clearly mentioned that the EU wants to bolster up the value chains of semiconductors to overcome the supply chain vulnerabilities that are being threatened by the Pandemic. In this regard, the EU is also willing to discuss current dependencies on Chinese supply chains with South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in the region to ‘end its strategic dependence on China’. According to its draft strategy, the EU has set 2030 as its target to be able to produce the fifth portion of semiconductors worldwide.
Moreover, the two aspiring groups namely the EU and QUAD are very much likely to cooperate with each other on the initiative of setting up ‘new’ global semiconductors supply chains in the Indo-Pacific. Since the EU has already expressed its interest in cooperation with QUAD on areas of common interests, the upcoming QUAD meeting in this respect reveals prospects of the EU’s role in the region as well.
Furthermore, the leaders in the meeting will also review its developments so far in the Covid-19 vaccine supply chain. QUAD leaders adopted the vaccine supply chain initiative in March not only to counter China’s vaccine diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region. But they also envisioned setting up a global pharmaceutical supply chain where India would play the central role. According to this plan, vaccines are being manufactured in India, developed by the U.S, financed, and supported by Japan and Australia. Under this initiative QUAD planned to give 1 billion vaccine doses to ASEAN states until the end of 2022.
However, the initiative came to halt recently when India was badly hit by the second wave of Covid-19 in May. But now the project is back on track. The U.S is financing Biological E. Limited pharmacy in India to accelerate the vaccine production to 1 billion to meet its ASEAN commitment by end of 2022.
Thus, as per current geopolitical trends, the vaccine supply chain initiative is likely to take immediate effect in the Indo-Pacific region to counter Chinese influence over ASEAN states and win over their trust, especially after harsh response by Malaysia and Singapore over the AUKUS security alliance.
AFGHANISTAN ISSUE
The USA’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has left India in a vulnerable position in the region, yet India has swallowed it silently. The two countries are yet to announce their policies vis-à-vis Afghanistan. Additionally, according to the U.S Republican Senator Bill Hagarty also the situation in Afghanistan is concerning for Japan and Australia too.
Thus, the meeting of QUAD leaders at this crucial time marks an important point in the policies of four countries vis-à-vis Afghanistan. Four leaders are very much likely to deliberate over the Afghanistan issue. The basic principles of future policies and measures of four member states could also form part of their upcoming high-political discussion.

ASEAN CENTRALITY
Since ASEAN states lie at the crossroads of the Indian and Pacific Oceans and connect them via sea lanes of communication, the ASEAN centrality is imperative to QUAD’s vision of ‘free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP).’
QUAD has reiterated their support for ASEAN and their Indo-Pacific outlook multiple times at different fora but could not successfully engage them under the Trump administration. Under the Biden administration, Quad is more focused on engaging ASEAN states diplomatically. Since ASEAN has made their position in the region very clear that they are more focused and interested in ‘cooperation and inclusivity in the region than FOIP. The upcoming QUAD meeting is likely to discuss and come up with a plan on engagement with ASEAN in a way that does not signal to ASEAN even that their cooperation with the West is against China in any possible way.
One possible development in this regard could be QUAD members engaging with ASEAN states independently or together under QUAD on matters of mutual interests. This may include vaccine supply, infrastructure development, climate change, and so on. This development can take place if QUAD takes ASEAN states in confidence that cooperation with QUAD does not necessarily present them with the choice to pick sides either with Washington or Beijing and their cooperation will solely be based on areas of “mutual interest.” Not to mention that engaging states in areas of low politics to high politics is an old tactic of Western politics, we can very much expect the same in the ASEAN case as well.

PROSPECTS FOR EU IN THE REGION
Earlier this year in April EU has also announced its draft strategy on Indo-Pacific. Draft revealed EU’s intent to increase engagement in the region and strengthen relations particularly with the states who have announced their Indo-Pacific strategy, indicating towards QUAD. EU also outlined that their Strategy is ‘flexible’, ‘pragmatic’, and ‘multifaceted’ that would allow the EU to adapt as per policy requirements on common interests, values, and principles.
To build its influence in Indo-Pacific, EU is aiming to have expanded cooperation with various partners on different sectors in the region where QUAD will be among many of its allies. Its draft has stated that EU will build digital partnerships with Japan, Singapore, and South Korea. On the other hand, it has expressed interest in cooperation with QUAD over supply chains.
EU also wishes to extend its partnership with Taiwan, which is directly against Beijing’s core interest of the one-China policy. But this would not be the first time the EU is engaging Taiwan. Recently EU has been engaging Taiwan on various international and diplomatic fronts.
EU is also eyeing to have a naval presence in the region for joint naval exercises to exercise and protect freedom of navigation. However, the European Council is yet to access and designate Indo-Pacific as “Maritime areas of interest” that would allow the EU the deployment of vessels and aircraft in the region.
Of all the countries, France and UK have been very active and vigilant to the developments in the region. The UK has recently revived its five-power defense agreement and a few days back also signed a Security Defense deal with the USA and Australia. Whereas for France through the deal came as a blow, the ice is soon expected to break. Since the leaders of the UK, France, Australia, India, and Japan are coming for the 76th UNGA session, they are very likely to hold bilateral talks on the sideline of the UNGA session.
Now, another likely aspect of the discussion with respect to the role and involvement of the EU in the region is the policy of multilateralism. The EU at the beginning may not risk going openly against China considering its economic dependence on it. So, QUAD leaders being cognizant of this possibility may try to engage the EU on various other initiatives in the region. Such initiatives will bring about more multiple alliances in Indo-Pacific working on the same interests of containing China. Hence, in the future, we are likely to see multiple trilateral cooperation, bilateral cooperation, and multilateral cooperation between the EU with India and Japan especially

*The writer is a Researcher and writer with core interests in foreign policy, diplomacy, and international relations. She is working as Research Intern Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Diplomatic Studies and The Diplomatic Insight 

 

*The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own and do not reflect the position of this magazine. 

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