United Nations (TDI): The United Nations has warned that El Nino could intensify into one of the strongest events ever recorded, with the World Meteorological Organization cautioning that the phenomenon could bring more extreme heat, floods and droughts across the world.
The WMO said El Nino is expected to strengthen to “very strong” levels in the coming months and is almost certain to continue through February.
The climate phenomenon occurs naturally when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, triggering changes in global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that if the current trend continues, the event could surpass anything recorded since systematic monitoring began four decades ago.
El Nino is expected to peak towards the end of this year, but its effects on global temperatures and weather could continue well into 2027.
The WMO said the exceptionally strong event could increase the risk of extreme heat, drought and flooding in different parts of the world.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world was entering a “danger zone of extreme weather” as ocean and global temperatures continue to rise.
Guterres said El Nino was being “supersized” as the planet experiences increasingly severe climate conditions, urging governments to accelerate climate action and protect vulnerable communities.
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The WMO stressed that El Nino itself is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change. However, scientists expect it to intensify the heat of an already warming planet and amplify weather extremes.
Saulo warned that the expected event could deliver a major blow to communities and economies, particularly in climate-sensitive sectors.
She urged disaster management authorities and governments to prepare for increased risks to agriculture, health, energy and water supplies.
The WMO said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have continued to rise. The relevant ocean temperature index averaged around 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal between May and July. Weekly readings between late July and mid-August climbed to between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees above average.
In some areas, temperatures below the ocean surface were more than 8 degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August, pointing to continued strengthening of the phenomenon.
The WMO expects above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas between September and November, alongside significant changes in rainfall patterns.
El Nino can influence weather thousands of kilometres away from the Pacific. Major events have previously been associated with droughts in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disruptions to monsoon patterns in India and shifting rainfall across tropical regions.
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The previous powerful El Nino in 2023-24 contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. The WMO has warned that another exceptionally strong event could push global temperatures even higher, raising the possibility that the existing temperature record could be broken.
El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months, alternating with its cooler counterpart, La Nina.
With the latest event expected to strengthen further, the UN is urging countries to prepare early for potentially severe impacts on communities, food and water security, public health and economies.
