After months of war on the battlefield, the Russia–Ukraine War seems to be at a tipping point. Now, the peace deal is coming to a glimpse of reality, and the actor who might bring it to the table is Donald Trump. Trump keeps saying that if he gets the chance, he can “fix the whole thing in 24 hours.”
Trump believes a fast deal is possible because of the way he negotiates and his past friendships with Vladimir Putin. Of course, a lot of people doubt that a move from Trump could really work, but the chatter about Trump stepping out is getting louder after the recent meeting with President Putin and European leaders.
Trump might want the Ukraine war over fast, mainly to turn the country’s attention back to China. Some US strategists back him, arguing that keeping aid to Ukraine going too long pulls assets away from the Indo-Pacific, where they believe the bigger fight lies. Whether or not he actually helps settle the war, just the chance that he might hints that the international balance is already shifting.
Quitting the fighting in Ukraine would do more than stop the guns in Europe; rather, it would also let Washington change how it picks its foreign policy fights. Once the Ukraine war stops, the US is almost certain to redirect foreign policy toward open competition with China.
Global Uncertainty and Trade Tensions in a Post-Ukraine, US–China Rivalry
If the US really goes all-in on countering China, the shockwaves will hit the whole global economy. Already, ongoing geopolitical strains and shaky markets are rewriting the global playbook. A full-blown US–China rivalry will probably pull the roster apart even more. Count on more friend-shoring, trading mainly with nations we trust plus stricter export rules, sanctions and their expensive counterfire. All of this makes trading and investing a guessing game.
Look at the numbers. New tariffs and trade arguments have pushed US firms to hit the brakes on Chinese investments. A 2025 poll showed only 48% of US companies were ready to sink fresh cash into China, a drop from 80% just a year earlier. Trade talks that keep flip-flopping along with tariff bumps have rattled business outlooks and forced firms to draw up new supply chain maps.
The bottom-line story is that multinational companies are hunting for new, less risky places to make their products.
As analysts put it, “tensions are pushing firms to move supply chains beyond China.” The hot new spots? Southeast Asia, India, and Mexico.
Moving Supply Chains: ASEAN as the Backup for China
Big companies are already folding more operations into Southeast Asia to guard against future troubles in China. A standout case is Apple, which is ramping up its factories in Vietnam. Over the past few years, Apple has signed up more than 35 new manufacturing partners in the country. That now makes Vietnam Apple’s largest manufacturing base in the region.
The local plants are cranking out AirPods, iPads, and Apple Watches, and experts predict that by 2025, Vietnam will account for 20 per cent of all iPads and Apple Watches and a whopping 65 per cent of AirPods that Apple sells. This rapid move, sparked by the U.S.-China trade fights and the need to lower risks, shows how much ASEAN is ready to take on more high-tech production.
More and more global companies are heading to Southeast Asia. Samsung, which has made devices in Vietnam for years, now has about 60% of its smartphones coming from the country. That shows how quickly Vietnam has become a center for electronics. Indonesia and Thailand are also winning fresh cash as companies spread their factories around.
Indonesia, with its big market and key resources, has pulled in money for both electronics and electric vehicles, including a rumored $1 billion investment from Apple to make phone parts, thanks to new local-content rules. Meanwhile, Thailand is hosting new automotive and electronics factories, from Chinese electric car makers to Western solar companies, both aiming to use Thailand’s skilled workers and its trade ties across Southeast Asia.
Preparing for Friend-Shoring: Cooperation and Policy Alignment
To grab this chance, ASEAN cannot just sit back and hope. The region has to ramp up cooperation and make sure the rules and conditions are right for investors. With “friend-shoring” meaning companies want to trade only with partners they trust, ASEAN’s united front is its biggest plus.
To lure firms that are moving their supply chains, Southeast Asia has to show it’s a stable, connected and welcoming place to do business.
For ASEAN to really succeed, everyone has to work together and agree on the same policies. One regional report said, “The more the countries team up, the better ASEAN can attract foreign investment.” So, each member needs to align its laws and make trading easier, so the whole region can compete better. If they all agree on what perks to give investors, make the rules easy to understand, and cut the red tape at the borders, the combined market gets super strong.
In fact, a region that is easier to understand and more predictable is more inviting for foreign investors and encourages companies already in ASEAN to invest in each other, too.
Some progress is already visible. The ASEAN Economic Community plan has countries working to make rules the same, speed up goods and services, and let skilled workers move freely. Trade deals like RCEP (the current biggest trade agreement in the world) already tie ASEAN to a bigger free-trade zone, making ASEAN more appealing. Still, there are more things to add: building roads together, creating shared factories and agreeing on online business rules can make ASEAN the go-to place for manufacturing.
Plus, acting as a single team means ASEAN can negotiate better terms on market access and investment rules, stopping each country from undercutting the next with unfair offers.
Another thing to think about is how ASEAN keeps its doors wide open without picking sides.
The member countries keep saying they want no part in deciding who wins the U.S.-China rivalry; they’d rather play it cool and balanced. Their goal is to stay neutral hubs for factories and to roll out the welcome mat for cash from every corner.
One of the notes from Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim warned that if countries fold into friend-shoring, tying all their chips to one bloc, they risk closing off chances for regional growth and sharpening the divides. He’s saying ASEAN should spread its bets but not shut the door on any one partner. Being open to both Western and Chinese investors isn’t just good manners, it’s a smart play that adds to the region’s edge. The same openness can lure extra “plus one” investments from businesses that want a seat at every table.
*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of TDI.
Bintang Corvi Diphda
Bintang Corvi Diphda is Research and Development Substance Officer in the United Nations Association In Indoneisa, and a researcher in the field of international political economy. His work is primarily focused on the economic dynamics of the ASEAN region, analyzing issues such as regional trade integration, foreign direct investment flows, and the geopolitical factors shaping Southeast Asia's economic landscape.
