Nearly four years after the Indian embassy and consulates shut down their services in Afghanistan in the wake of the Taliban takeover, the Indian government has announced an intent to resume their diplomatic mission in Kabul. The announcement came following the Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to India in a bid to normalize relations with New Delhi. The development has raised eyebrows in Pakistan, as the move is set to resurrect the saga of the Indo-Afghan alliance that Pakistan has dreaded since independence.
The Fatal Conceit
Since its inception, Pakistan has feared a two-front war with India and Afghanistan. Though the historic roots of Indo-Pak animosity can be traced back to the horrors of partition and the contentious issue of Kashmir, Pakistan’s Afghan problem stems from the Durand Line, the border disputed by Afghan governments since 1947.
Therefore, in order to neutralize its worries on the western front, Pakistan has adopted the policy of destabilizing the Indian-friendly governments and backing Pakistan-friendly governments in Afghanistan. The takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 by the Taliban, an Islamist militant group with strong ties to Pakistan, therefore, was welcomed by many in Pakistan’s political and military establishment.
The takeover, dubbed in Pakistan as strategic depth, however, was an ill-conceived plan from the outset. The incessant interventions of Pakistan in Afghanistan have led to the harboring of resentment among the Afghan people against Pakistan, which frequently shows up on social media and at cricket matches. Where Pakistan played power politics by installing radical governments in hopes of ruling Afghanistan indirectly, India focused on ruling the hearts and minds of the Afghan people.
What India understood better than Pakistan was that if you rule the hearts and minds, you do not have to use whips. Pakistan, in contrast, has relied solely on whips to achieve its foreign policy ambitions in the country.
However, even after the Taliban takeover, Pakistan has failed to achieve its security concerns, as cross-border terrorism has made a resurgence since 2021, with the TTP using Afghanistan as a base for attacks on Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban have also been less cooperative regarding TTP and other terrorist outfits. Moreover, in an unprecedented move, the Afghan Taliban have now also made relations with India a priority as Pakistan grows impatient with cross-border terrorism and Kabul looks for alternatives.
In retrospect, it looks like it was a fatal conceit on the part of Pakistan to believe that Taliban would prioritize gratitude for Pakistan over their own geopolitical interests. The Indo-Afghan rapprochement, therefore, should serve as a lesson for Pakistan that the game of international relations does not run on gratitude or ideology but on interests that change all the time.
India as Alternative and the Cycle of Chaos
The Taliban’s turn to India, though it might come across as a surprise for some, was inevitable as an isolated and illegitimate regime looks for patrons abroad to sustain its rule at home. Despite close ties to Pakistan, the Taliban, like previous Afghan regimes, has not recognized the Durand Line as an international border and has sought to revitalize Pashtun nationalism in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. This, along with their support for TTP, has tempted New Delhi to normalize relations with the Taliban and revive the plan for “reverse strategic depth” to surround Islamabad.
However, like Pakistan’s pursuit of zero-sum power politics in Afghanistan, the Indian engagement too suffers from the same grave mistake: it believes that by destabilizing its neighbors, it can create stability for itself. The pursuit of this zero-sum security policy has condemned the region into repeating the cycle of chaos and destabilization since the days of independence. This has led to a lack of trust and underdevelopment in the most populous region of the world, where the lion’s share of state budgets goes to securing military might rather than human development.
It will, however, be a great disservice for the developmental potential of the region if we continue to engage in this zero-sum game.
Learning the Lessons
The Indo-Afghan rapprochement is the revenge of realpolitik. Pakistan should, therefore, also realign its foreign policy with pragmatism rather than cold realism. In this respect, Pakistan can learn a great deal from one of the foremost proponents of realpolitik, the 19th century German Chancellor, Otto Von Bismarck. Known as the Iron Chancellor, Bismarck oversaw the unification of Germany while maintaining a balance of power with France on the western front and Russia on the eastern front.
Rather than engaging in zero-sum games, Bismarck prioritized a radical diplomatic approach that reassured the security concerns of both Russia and France to maintain a delicate balance of power on the continent. The approach successfully sustained peace in Europe. Even though Germany fought France over unification, it was the effective diplomatic maneuvers of Bismarck that prevented the conflict from turning into a continental war. By ensuring French that Germany would not challenge French hegemony on the continent and pose a threat to Russia, Bismarck was able to carve out a space for the German federation.
Pakistan also seems to be in the same predicament. To get out, Pakistan should diplomatically engage not just India and Afghanistan but also their respective populations. Furthermore, Pakistan should also leverage relations with the US and China to engage both global powers in the region to ensure its security. A holistic approach involving both pragmatism and realism, therefore, should be prioritized by Pakistan to break the cycle of chaos.
*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of TDI.
Muhammad Omer Rafiq
Muhammad Omer Rafiq is a student of politics with a passion for making sense of our tumultuous political world that always seems to be on the edge. He recently graduated in International Relations from Lahore Garrison University. He can be reached at muhammadomerrafiq@gmail.com
