For decades, Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy was shaped by a powerful strategic assumption: a friendly government in Kabul would make Pakistan’s western frontier safer.
The Taliban’s return to power in 2021 appeared, at least initially, to offer Islamabad an opportunity to build a more cooperative relationship with its western neighbor. Five years later, that expectation has been badly undermined.
Pakistan is confronting a renewed militant threat along its western frontier, particularly from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Islamabad maintains that the group operates from Afghan territory and has repeatedly demanded that Kabul prevent its soil from being used for attacks against Pakistan.
The United Nations has also documented the continuing presence and activities of terrorist groups in Afghanistan, while noting the regional consequences of cross-border militancy.
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The lesson for Islamabad is uncomfortable but unavoidable: Pakistan can no longer build its Afghanistan policy around the expectation of strategic alignment. It must build it around Pakistan’s national security interests. The latest incidents demonstrate why this policy shift cannot wait.
In early September, Pakistani security forces reported killing militants attempting to enter North Waziristan from Afghanistan. Between September 3 and 5, another 21 TTP militants were reported killed in operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
These are not isolated border incidents. Pakistan has experienced a sustained militant threat, and Islamabad increasingly links that threat to TTP networks operating from across the border.
Pakistan’s position has been consistent: it does not seek confrontation with the Afghan people, but it cannot accept attacks against Pakistani civilians and security personnel from territory controlled by another state.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry has explicitly called for an unequivocal commitment that Afghan territory will not be used for terrorism against Pakistan. That is not an unreasonable demand. It is the basic responsibility expected of a state toward its neighbors.
Kabul’s Failure Has Changed the Strategic Equation
Pakistan initially pursued engagement with the Taliban authorities, hoping that historical, religious and political links could translate into cooperation against militant groups. That calculation has produced disappointing results.
The central issue is no longer whether Pakistan can maintain dialogue with Kabul. It should. The question is whether dialogue without consequences can protect Pakistan. The answer is increasingly clear: it cannot.
The international community has also recognized the broader problem. The UN Security Council continues to treat terrorism emanating from Afghanistan as a regional security concern, while international assessments have highlighted the threat posed by the TTP and other militant organizations operating in the country.
Pakistan therefore needs to abandon the assumption that diplomatic engagement, by itself, will persuade Kabul to address the threat. Pakistan should replace the old concept of strategic depth with strategic clarity.
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Islamabad should no longer measure its Afghanistan policy by whether Kabul is politically friendly, ideologically sympathetic or diplomatically cooperative. The test should be much simpler: does Afghanistan prevent its territory from being used to threaten Pakistan? This should become the central condition governing bilateral relations.
Pakistan can maintain diplomatic channels with Kabul while simultaneously applying pressure. Engagement should be conditional, measurable and reversible.
If the Taliban authorities take verifiable action against TTP networks, Pakistan should be prepared to expand diplomatic and economic cooperation. If they fail to do so, Islamabad should impose proportionate diplomatic, economic and security consequences. Promises should no longer be enough. Pakistan needs verification.
Pakistan must also strengthen its western frontier. This does not mean pursuing permanent confrontation with Afghanistan. It means making infiltration significantly harder through better surveillance, intelligence-sharing, biometric controls at formal crossings, counterterrorism coordination and improved border infrastructure.
Pakistan should also protect legitimate trade and transit. Security and economic interests are not mutually exclusive. A secure border should facilitate lawful commerce while preventing militants, weapons and illicit networks from moving across it. The objective should be deterrence, not perpetual war.
Pakistan Needs a Policy Reset
Pakistan should also make greater use of regional diplomacy. China, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other regional actors have an interest in preventing Afghanistan from becoming a source of wider instability. Islamabad should work with these states to develop a mechanism through which Kabul’s counterterrorism commitments can be independently monitored and verified.
Pakistan should take the TTP issue to every relevant diplomatic forum with evidence, intelligence assessments and documented incidents.
The objective should not be to internationalize Pakistan’s conflict with Afghanistan. It should be to ensure that the consequences of cross-border terrorism are understood as a regional security problem rather than Pakistan’s bilateral complaint alone.
Pakistan cannot change its geography. Afghanistan will remain its neighbor, regardless of who governs Kabul. But Islamabad can change its strategy. The answer is neither unconditional engagement nor perpetual military escalation.
Pakistan needs conditional diplomacy backed by credible deterrence: dialogue when it serves Pakistani interests, economic engagement when it strengthens stability, and decisive security action when Pakistan’s sovereignty and citizens are threatened.
The era of assuming that political influence in Kabul automatically produces security in Pakistan is over. Pakistan does not need strategic depth. It needs strategic clarity. And that clarity begins with one principle: Afghan territory must never become a launchpad for attacks against Pakistan—and Islamabad should judge Kabul not by its assurances, but by its actions.
*The views presented in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Diplomatic Insight.*
Mian Masood Tariq
Mian Masood Tariq is an independent researcher and policy commentator, based in Islamabad. He can be reached at [email protected]
