The recent developments in the Middle East have attracted the attention of analysts and policymakers worldwide. The region that had been conflict-ridden for several decades is now on a path of rapprochement. Coupled with that are the modernization attempts, which have made the region unrecognizable to many Westerners who view it as predominantly conservative.
These geopolitical shifts have mainly been fueled by the changes in the international system after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The global energy and food crisis triggered alarm among all state actors.
A major shift was observed in trade relations as European, Asian, and African countries started seeking new avenues for energy and food imports. This gave Middle Eastern states a golden opportunity to turn the dynamics in their favor.
Moreover, China’s willingness to catalyze the deconfliction process proved to be an ultimate game-changer. Frameworks analyzing regional interactions claim that cooperation facilitates the resolution of conflicts and promotes collective prosperity.
Iran and Saudi Arabia had been at odds for years. The relations further deteriorated in 2016 after the execution of a Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia. This event not only invited immense condemnation by the world authorities and human rights organizations but also led to a diplomatic stalemate between Iran and Saudi Arabia for many years to come.
Moreover, both states held diverging religious and ideological views, which led them to support opposing parties in the Syrian conflict and the Yemen war. This, along with a series of unfortunate events, helped to sever Saudi-Iranian ties for an extended period.
In recent years, there has been an improvement in Iran-UAE diplomatic ties. Both states have officially collaborated for regional stability and prosperity. Both leaders have pledged not to make the current decade the same as the last one. De-escalation has been viewed as the ideal policy option by both states.
To this end, the UAE has emphasized collective diplomacy among Arab states to resolve the crisis in the Middle East. The recent trade agreements between Iran, Iraq, and the UAE are key steps toward regional prosperity. Developments in the region have also intrigued international actors.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, there was an increase in collaboration between Russia, Turkey, and Iran. All three states discussed the prospects of resolving the Syrian crisis as well. Several bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have recently been signed between Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China. China has played a monumental role in thwarting the Saudi-Iran rivalry.
The Middle East has shifted its focus to modernization in addition to deconfliction. The FIFA 2022 World Cup helped to publicize the Arab world’s soft image significantly. This is coupled with rapid technological advancements, intellectual modernization, economic diversification, exchange programs, and employment opportunities to attract workers from all over the world. Tourism is another industry that is rapidly expanding in the Middle East.
Arabs are now moving towards unconventional sources of revenue generation. Saudi-based oil giant ARAMCO is currently exploring ways to produce renewable energy. Additionally, the completion of the NEOM city project is expected to transform the Middle Eastern economy and produce revenue that will greatly surpass the income generated by oil.
Joseph Nye famously proposed that economic integration leads to political integration. These patterns are quite prevalent in the Middle East now, where regional actors are prioritizing economic cooperation.
In addition, migration trends seem to favor the Middle East as well (particularly UAE, KSA, Qatar, etc.). This is largely due to the job incentives, lower taxes, better opportunities for professional growth, and higher standards of living that these oil-rich states currently offer.
It is important to note that climate change, food scarcity, energy insecurity, and humanitarian crises are all active forces in the contemporary world. This has significantly altered the global geopolitical landscape. Enhanced regional cooperation among member states has further enhanced the fruits of mutual collaboration and shared prosperity.
While skeptics have criticized these plans as being impractical given the enormous financial and logistical resources required, optimists, on the other hand, claim that Arabs have both the enthusiasm and budget necessary to remain committed to the projects. They predict that if the work continues, by 2030, the Middle East will become the new hub of global tourism, migration, and economic activity.
The changing geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East have proven to be seismic for the unipolar world order. China is making the right use of its diplomacy to seize the opportunity of getting rich allies.
For Pakistan, these developments hold immense potential. Establishing prosperous relations with Arab states would resolve Pakistan’s energy crisis, which is a need of the hour. Projects like CASA 1000 and TAPI require urgent attention for completion.
The chances of aid from Middle Eastern states would be pivotal in dragging Pakistan out of its economic crunch. For example, in July 2023, Pakistan received $2 billion in monetary aid from Saudi Arabia, which was a breath of fresh air for a state that was verging on collapse.
In addition, exchange programs would help provide education and employment opportunities to millions of deprived Pakistanis. It would also provide Pakistan with access to Middle Eastern markets, which would be crucial to stabilizing the economy.
Moreover, issues such as terrorism, Islamophobia, smuggling, human trafficking, and climate change would also be effectively tackled. Through the portrayal of its soft image, Pakistan’s tarnished regional and international reputation would be polished. Stability in the Middle East would ensure the Islamic world’s prosperity, making it a crucial actor in future global geopolitics.
*The author is an International Relations graduate from Kinnaird College, Lahore, Pakistan.
**The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Diplomatic Insight. The organization neither endorses nor assumes any responsibility for the content of this article.