Saima Afzal
The elections held in Indian-occupied Kashmir after a decade and following the abrogation of Article 370 mark a significant moment in the region’s political landscape.
Conducted in three phases (September 18, 25, and October 1) for 90 seats, the overall turnout was 63.45%, with phase-wise turnouts of 61.38% in the first phase, 57.3% in the second, and 68.72% in the third, still lower than the record figure of 2014.
Despite the participation of many parties, the results revealed disappointing performances by new parties and independents.
Voters in Jammu and Kashmir showed strong support for the National Conference in the Kashmir Valley and the BJP in Jammu, indicating that the people are enthusiastically participating in the evolution of democracy in the region.
According to the latest figures from the Election Commission of India (ECI), the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) has secured 42 seats, while the Congress has won 6 seats.
Its allied party, the Communist Party Marxist (CPM), has won one seat. The BJP has claimed 29 seats, and Mehbooba Mufti’s Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (JKPDP) has won three seats.
After assessing the election outcomes, it is believed that the NC and Congress are likely to form a coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir. National Conference President Farooq Abdullah has stated that Omar Abdullah would be the next Chief Minister of the NC-Congress allied government.
The question arises whether this coalition government will be able to restore statehood and Articles 370 and 35A, as NC received a significant mandate due to its slogan of restoring Article 370. The majority of Kashmiri people cast their votes with the hope of seeing the restoration of statehood and against the Central authority.
With elections conducted in the Union Territory after a ten-year lapse, the restoration of statehood has emerged as a major challenge.
The people of Kashmir are calling for tangible steps to restore their dignity, autonomy, and reclaim authority over powers that were previously held by the Lieutenant Governor. Although the BJP has already assured that statehood would be reinstated, the Congress and the National Conference, which contested the polls as an alliance, have also committed to making it their top agenda.
Looking back at the historical background of allied governments, in 2014, the PDP and BJP formed a ruling alliance. However, this partnership between two ideologically different parties was short-lived, and Jammu and Kashmir came under President’s Rule in 2018.
This time, Jammu and Kashmir is witnessing a trilateral competition between the National Conference-Congress alliance, Modi’s BJP, and Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party.
Consequently, conflicts of interest may also arise between allied parties, making it very challenging to manage the situation and to fulfill the expectation of Kashmiri people.
Elections can never substitute the essential rights and independence that individual Kashmiris desire. The electorate has clearly rejected divisive politics; the ultimate outcomes of the J&K elections indicate that while dividing people by caste and creed may bring success in India, it has not resonated in IIOJK.
An overall analysis by various scholars suggests that this approach has shattered the confidence of voters (particularly in Kashmir) and alienated the majority of supporters.
Engineer Rashid’s initial success in the Lok Sabha elections was overshadowed by allegations of association with the Indian government in the State Assembly elections. The J&K Apni Party also suffered significant losses.
The PDP struggled to regain trust due to its previous alliance with the BJP, which continues to haunt its efforts. Meanwhile, the BJP’s attempts to consolidate power by granting Scheduled Caste status to the Pahari community and addressing the concerns of the Gujjar community did not yield the expected electoral rewards.
The BJP’s strategy of leveraging caste-based politics met with skepticism, as voters appeared more focused on state identity than on caste considerations.
In the Kashmir Valley, the BJP failed to secure any seats, and even in the Muslim-majority areas of Jammu, the party’s attempts at gerrymandering assembly segments did not result in electoral success.
Many prominent candidates, including former Chief Ministers and several ex-Ministers, suffered defeats. BJP Chief Ravinder Raina and former Chief Minister Tara Chand lost to independent candidates in Jammu, while JKAP President Altaf Bukhari, a former Minister, was defeated by NC candidate Mushtaq Guroo.
Moreover, Iltija Mufti, the daughter of former Chief Minister and PDP president Mehbooba Mufti, lost to NC’s Bashir Ahmad Veeri. Sartaj Madni, the uncle of PDP president Mehbooba Mufti, lost to NC’s Peerzada Feroze Ahmad, and Junaid Mattu, the former mayor of Srinagar, was defeated by NC’s Tanvir Sadiq.
The President’s Rule was revoked in Jammu and Kashmir after five years, paving the way for the formation of a new government, and Omar Abdullah took oath as the Chief Minister of the Union Territory on 16 October 2024. The Lieutenant Governor has not yet made a decision regarding the five seats he can nominate to the 95-member Jammu and Kashmir Assembly.
However, it is widely believed that his choices may align with the Modi government, which is led by the BJP. This potential alignment could influence the political landscape, especially in a closely contested Assembly However, Elected representatives regain control over local governance, reducing the direct intervention of the central government.
The legislative assembly is reconvened, that only allow the elected representatives to debate and pass laws relevant to Jammu and Kashmir.
While the assembly can debate and vote on financial matters, all grants and appropriations must be presented for the LG’s approval.
The lieutenant governor will exercise executive control over critical areas, including police, public order and land management.
The question persists: to what extent will the new coalition government fulfill its promises, as this poses a significant challenge for the upcoming government in Jammu and Kashmir?
However, this is the right time for the allied government to work more rigorously and diligently to maintain democratic values and safeguard the well-being of the Kashmiri people.
The majority of Kashmiris voted for the restoration of statehood, and the government must also meet the expectations of the Kashmiri youth to ensure peace and stability in the region.
*The writer is a research scholar and analyst.
*The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of The Diplomatic Insight or its editorial board. The content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an endorsement of any particular viewpoint, policy, or action.
