Balochistan, possesses a significant strategic value in Pakistan’s strategic landscape due to its vast geography, abundant natural resources, and the important deep-sea port of Gwadar. Gwadar is a key gateway connecting the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia through maritime routes, making it essential to China’s proposed development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
However, Balochistan bears a long-standing insurgency of local grievances aggravated by external actors, particularly by regional actors attempting to destabilize Pakistan at its best. In this regard, great power rivalry has evolved. China’s CPEC initiative seeks to strengthen regional connectivity and influence, while the US pursues its Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China’s expansion.
This leads to the fundamental question: How does US-China competition over Balochistan and CPEC affects Pakistan’s internal security? This argument contends that the Balochistan is more than a domestic issue; it is a geopolitical flashpoint, where great power competition further exacerbates Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities. To better understand this geopolitical rivalry, it is essential to examine the strategic significance of the province within Pakistan and beyond.
Pakistan is known for its abundant natural, economic and political resources. Apart from its strategic position, this province places a high value on it. Over the past 20 years, it has served as a strategic hub for major global powers such as the USSR, United States, and Britain recognized the significance of the province from the Cold War to the post 9-11/ era.
Balochistan’s proximity to the Persian Gulf where almost 65% of the world’s oil reserves are located, strengthens its geostrategic importance.
Pakistan provides one of the shortest trade routes European and global markets at just over 1,000 miles from this energy hub. The province also has 400-km border with China, which has become increasingly significant as Beijing’s regional influence increases under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
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Furthermore, the geography of Balochistan connects Pakistan to Afghanistan via the Durand line, with Iran to the West, and indirectly with Central Asia through narrow land corridors. Balochistan’s 700-km coastline on the Arabian sea connects to the Indian ocean, making Gwadar a strategic deep sea port. This elevates the region from a domestic frontier to a geostrategic hub, crucial for Pakistan’s stability and an important objective for global powers
China’s involvement in Balochistan dates back decades, although it has grown significantly with the development of Gwadar port and the inauguration of the CPEC. Gwadar, which was built with Chinese economic aid, provide Beijing an access to the Arabian Sea, while also enabling Pakistan to become a significant trading hub.
Gwadar reduces China’s dependence on the lengthier and more hazardous maritime routes through the strait of Malacca which is sometimes portrayed as a potential “choke point” due to US Navy dominance. Rather, it offers a shorter and more secure route connecting China’s western province of Xinjiang to the international markets.
The port is also adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz, over which almost 60% of the China’s energy imports from the Persian Gulf. Direct access to Gwadar thereby increases China’s energy security which is a fundamental driver of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI’s flagship project CPEC has been dubbed as a “game changer” for both China and Pakistan. It includes infrastructure development, energy projects, fiber optic networks, special economic zones, and road and rail links connecting western China to Gwadar.
Gwadar is important not only economically but also strategically. Analysts point out that China’s role at the port is widely regarded as allowing to monitor water lanes, expand its naval reach in the Indian ocean, which could serve as the counterweight to the influence of India and the United States.
For Pakistan, China’s investment has strengthened bilateral connections and brought economic optimism for economic reform, still, tensions inside Baluchistan and recurring security threats make it difficult to realize the full potential of such projects.
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Washington’s stance on China’s CPEC project in Balochistan highlights broader strategic concern outlined in its Indo-Pacific strategy. The US views Gwadar more than a trade hub, arguing that it could serve both economic and military purposes, this perception fuels their concerns over China’s rising influence in the region.
To respond, Washington is strengthening ties with India and promoting alternative economic and energy corridors like as the Indian-Middle East Europe Corridor (IMEC) to counteract China’s CPEC dominance. Furthermore, it is using soft power tactics including aid, human rights advocacy, and democracy promotion to impose indirect pressure on Pakistan, attempting to limit China’s influence in Baluchistan while, furthering its own geopolitical goals. Together, these measures show how great power rivalry directly affects Pakistan’s security environment.
The increasing alliance between China and Pakistan via CPEC risks straining Islamabad ties with Washington, as many observers have pointed out, eventually moving Pakistan closer to Beijing. To counteract this trend the US might explore connectivity measures that offer credible alternative to CPEC.
In practical terms, a US-Pakistan renewable corridor focused on solar and wind energy projects or eco-friendly smart city development might immediately solve Pakistan’s chronic energy inadequacies while fostering long-term growth, an area that CPEC has yet to target. Similarly the US backed investments in digital infrastructure like as fiber optic expansion and 5G networks, which policymakers often discuss as crucial for modern economies, could position Washington as a technology partner, distinguishing its engagement strategy from China’s emphasis on traditional physical infrastructure.
However, the intensifying rivalry has obvious implications for Pakistan’s internal security. As recent developments show, in 2025, the Baloch insurgency has intensified dramatically, with groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army-jeeyand faction (BLA-J), Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), and BLA-Azad faction (BLA-A), deploying suicide bombers, including women and targeting Chinese nationals and
CPEC-linked projects. The Jaffar Express hijacking on March 2025- in which BLA militants kidnapped over 400 passengers and massacred at least 26 captives demonstrates the separatist’s growing sophistication and cruelty. Many of these groups also temporarily occupy occupy regions, threatening state sovereignty and exacerbating provincial insecurity.
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Furthermore, the insurgency has spread beyond Pakistan’s western border into Iran, and coalitions like Baloch Raaji Aajohi Sangar (BRAS) enable large-scale, coordinated attacks that undermine counter-terrorism efforts.
In light of this, turning the Balochistan issue into a battleground between the United States and China risks fueling separatist narratives and exacerbating instability. Several analysts warn that without a political settlement that addresses local grievances, the convergence of insurgency and great power competition could transform Balochistan from Pakistan’s economic gateway to its most destabilizing fault line.
Moving forward, Pakistan must carefully balance its engagement with China and the US, to avoid becoming the victim of a great power rivalry. Leaning too heavily on either side risks making Balochistan a battleground for interests that go far beyond its borders.
Prioritizing inclusive development in Balochistan, addressing local grievances through political dialogue, and ensuring transparency in CPEC projects would be essential for establishing domestic credibility, offering credible economic options rather than simply security-focused initiatives could help Washington deepen bilateral ties and reduce its reliance on Beijing.
For China, winning hearts and minds in Balochistan is as important as building ports and highways; as several experts noted, without local buy in even flagship projects like CPEC remain vulnerable. Only through a combination of political reconciliation and balanced diplomacy can Balochistan be transformed from a flashpoint of great power struggle to a true driver of Pakistan’s peace and prosperity.
*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of TDI.
Minahil Khurshid
Minahil Khurshid is currently pursuing a Masters in Peace and Conflict Studies at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST). She has a keen interest in current affairs, public policy, and geopolitics.
