As tensions in the Middle East escalate, Israel and Iran find themselves in a dangerous cycle of mutual strikes. Both sides, armed with advanced intelligence and military capabilities, are engaging in high-stakes confrontations.
Israeli operations — including covert Mossad drone strikes — have targeted key sites within Iran, while Iran has responded with a series of missile launches and coordinated attacks of its own, demonstrating its significant strategic reach and resilience.
Here in Washington, President Donald Trump is playing a high-stakes game of brinksmanship. The President has brandished the phrase “unconditional surrender” and publicly warned Iran to “make a deal or face even more brutal attacks,” all while standing ready with military options—including bunker-busting B2 bombers aimed at Fordow.
Meanwhile, his MAGA base is deeply split—some hawks urging support for Israel and others, like Steve Bannon, warning against a costly new war.
Let’s be clear: the United States is not about to bomb Iran. At least, not directly.
Why “No” to direct US involvement?
- Trump’s “Do-or-Decide-Later” Strategy: President Trump thrives on unpredictability. He’s authorized military options but avoids firm commitment. “May do it, may not do it,” he tells aides. This gives him the advantage: leverage over Iran without risking a major war or permanent troop deployments. And that’s classic “America First” brinksmanship.
- Proxies and Allies: It’s Not Direct, but It’s Effective: Since June 13, Israel — empowered by Mossad’s deep-penetration drone sabotage — has led the charge. U.S. assets have shadowed and supported, but the action hasn’t been American boots and bombers. Trump prefers others to do the actual striking, while the U.S. keeps its hands ostensibly clean.
- Geopolitical Chess: Don’t Play Russia or China: Moscow is already floating nuclear doomsday rhetoric if Washington directly enters the war. Russia and China have offered to mediate – offers Trump has snubbed. But the real lesson: open U.S. warfare with Iran risks massive entanglement with global powers.
Why Trump won’t go full Iraq again?
No One Wants Another Quagmire: The US killed thousands in Iraq chasing weapons that never existed. A full-scale war with Iran wouldn’t just repeat that mistake—it would be far worse. If Trump pulls his “America First” base into another endless conflict, he risks breaking the very foundation of his support.
Credit Without Casualties: Trump benefits from projecting strength (“I have total control of the skies”). But without U.S. soldier deaths, he avoids domestic blowback. Allies and proxies take the casualties; Trump takes the credit.
Diplomacy as Cover: Even with the threat of force, Trump has quietly reopened nuclear talks. After suspended negotiations in mid‑June, informal chats may resume in Oman. The message to Iran: “Submit—diplomacy or you get the bombers.” This is pressure through threats and force, not an all-out war.
Verdict: No US invasion, but a proxy storm
Trump will not order a direct US military invasion of Iran. Instead:
1. He’ll enable Israel and Gulf states with intelligence, logistics, and deterrence.
2. He’ll maintain pressure via sanctions and diplomacy, backed by the threat of U.S. military force that never quite crosses the line.
3. He will stay unclear on purpose, so both peace supporters and war lovers stay confused — and keep supporting him.
That’s how you wage “controlled fire”: deliver strategic blows, demand submission, and walk away—celebrities shine, soldiers don’t die.
The US Will Attack Iran—Just Not in Uniform
History shows: America fights wars it can’t finish and avoids ones that could bury it. A direct U.S. assault on Iran would escalate to a regional war, entangle with Russia and China, and ravage Trump politically. Better to delegate the dirty work—use allies, use proxies, keep the war at arms’ length. The U.S. will not land on Iranian soil—but if it lands, Trump will claim victory.
Finally, coming back to the question, will US attack Iran? No! But do not mistake the absence of bombs on US jets for peace. The war will be fought by others, won by US influence, and celebrated by a President who mastered 2025’s most dangerous diplomatic tight rope.
Areeba Kanwal is a contributor at The Diplomatic Insight and has passion for International Relations and diplomacy.
