Yet it hit again! The environment was tense, the air was filled with gasps and the cloud of uncertainty was looming. This was not the first (or the last) time that the two arch-rivals, Pakistan and India, were at daggers drawn with each other. The checkered history filled with more animosity than friendship has made this bilateral relation one of the most long-standing diplomatic juggernauts.
Although there have been different reasons over the period of time for such meltdowns, this time it was due to the April attack by assailants in Pahalgam District of Indian-Occupied Kashmir, which killed over two dozen tourists. This attack had not only taken the Indian government by storm but had turned out to be a scapegoat situation for Pakistan.
A Backgrounder
On 22 April, unknown gunmen suddenly opened fire in the protected hotspot meadow which was crowded at that time. As per eyewitnesses, men were targeted while women and children were spared. A sort of unknown group is said to have taken responsibility of the attack, however, there are still discrepancies in it.
After the news of attack spread, there were certain reactions from the IIOJK leadership, politicians, Indian government, opposition and even the US government. Coincidentally, on the day of the attack, the US Vice-President JD Vance was in India on an official trip while Indian PM Narendra Modi was in Saudi Arabia to meet Saudi Crown Prince. The US directly gave its reaction as JD Vance and POTUS Donald Trump made statements in support of India.
Condolences poured in from around the world, including Pakistan, for the loss of innocent lives as it was termed as the worst attack in Occupied Kashmir, on civilians, in two decades. While the targeted area was cordoned off for operation against the culprits, there was a surge on conventional and social media about Pakistan’s involvement in this heinous act. Subsequently, the Indian government directly blamed its neighbor for involvement in this incident.
Reactionary Playbook
By then, it had taken the form of propaganda and to such an extent that the Indian government took staunch decisions, meant to harm and hurt Pakistan, although with lack of any evidence of involvement. India’s warmongering was rampant since the month of May. It readily announced the suspension of Indus Water Treaty and targeted Simla Agreement, severed diplomatic ties and cancelled visas of Pakistanis (hence forced to return), cracked down on Kashmiris and their houses, gave carte blanche to military, and most importantly, incited doubts of sudden attack on Pakistan.
In response, Pakistan increased vigilance, took retaliatory steps, and put military on high alert; while calling for peace, dialogue, and an independent, transparent investigation into the Pahalgam attack.
Eventually, India cowardly launched strikes on multiple locations in Pakistan on 7 May, in late night hours under the veil of targeting assumed militants, killing more than 30 civilians and wounding many. This breached the sovereignty principle, caused destruction and panic for safety which turned out to be the red line for Pakistan.
Conflict Spiraling and an Unexpected Mediator
Pakistan followed the principle of self defense while prepping for crisis management on domestic levels. The situation was thus escalating by time between the two as a tit-for-tat, under Operation Sindoor by India and Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos by Pakistan, as military bases were targeted, missiles were fired and defense was on high alert in air, sea, land; there was fear of an all out war, particularly nuclear. Casualties and damage to infrastructure were continuously reported.
Through sudden steps by the US along with role of other countries like Saudi Arabia, UK, China, both countries were made to announce ceasefire immediately on the evening of 10 May, to avoid further loss and to initiate rounds of dialogue, bringing a sigh of relief. Although, the tension remained for a while as there have been accusations of ceasefire violations by India and efforts by it to put Pakistan in a limbo by stating that conflict has paused but not ended.
The sudden aggressive posture of the Indian government not only shocked the people of Pakistan but also Indians, Kashmiris and the world at large, because the war rhetoric was based on religio-political motives rather than evidence and giving diplomacy a chance first.
History Speaks Louder
The BJP government, under Modi, in all its three reigns has made records of practicing hatred towards Pakistan and Muslims (even Indian Muslims), unlike other predecessor governments. These actions have posed serious questions to Modi’s mindset, the government’s survival and stability of peace in the region.
The last imminent escalation was in 2019 after a bomb blast in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pulwama which killed 40 paramilitary personnel. India back then also conducted airstrikes on Pakistan on this justification that Pakistan was behind it. International reaction and Pakistan’s responsible action calmed the situation.
2016 had seen a familiar situation of surgical strikes by India due to the similar reason of 19 deaths of personnel in IIOJK’s Uri but tensions eventually dispersed due to international calls for mediation.
Therefore, such instances have happened before and all were expecting that it will fade away anyway. However, this time it was more critical as India’s latest aggressive action against Pakistan had not been witnessed since 1971. This time as well, the US, China, UK, Iran, Turkiye, UN, EU among others called for restraint and gave offers for dialogue but there was no definite step by these global actors to de-escalate the situation, until certain threat of an all-out war, due to which the Indian bellicosity remained unabated.
Why a Third-Party Mediator?
Although it is not a necessity that a third party should be involved in bilateral matters, however, the case of Pakistan and India should be taken as an exception. Pakistan came into existence based on separate identity of religion and ideology through division of Indian subcontinent by British Raj, the remaining of which is mostly India, hence, from that time and even today there is always suspicion of sabotage.
These two countries have some unsettled scores and differences on certain issues which lead to overpowering and aggressive tactics, especially by India. Kashmir, water, territorial claims, terrorism blame game, zero-sum mind set and trust issues are some of the basic bone of contention in these countries’ problematic relation which becomes more complex with further underlying matter of inherent hatred.
Also, India does not consider Pakistan on equal terms and does not accept Pakistan’s point of view as a neighboring country which puts further barriers.
Pakistan and India have a record of fighting three wars (1948, 1965, 1971) and several war-like standoffs (1999, 2002, 2016, 2019, 2025). They have minimal diplomatic connection and limited cooperation which also impacts their interactions/commitments in international organizations such as United Nations, SAARC etc.
Dangers of a Frozen Conflict
In international affairs, Pakistan-India relationship falls in the case of a “Frozen Conflict”, where active fighting disperses for any reason but the issues remain unresolved due to which the conflict can defrost anytime.
Pakistan and India are strategically important for the global affairs due to their nukes, GDP, location, economic setup, population, alliances, resources, defense etc. Thus, their problem can be influential on the world and cannot be considered a bilateral matter only as claimed by the Indian government. Ignoring this fact can be detrimental to all with respect to future prospects.
7-10 May escalation was a danger signal for the world because unlike the ongoing conflicts of Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, Yemen and Sudan proxy wars, where the involved countries are not on equal standings militarily, here there are two equally standing highly developed militaries, nuclear powers, with defense stockpiles and technological expertise that can turn out to be a recipe for disaster, which can reincarnate the situation of World War II, unless handled properly through diplomatic coordination.
Thus, international actors need to rise up for Pakistan-India serious mediation before it turns into a downward spiral.
The Mediator’s Role
An enhanced and officiated negotiation between Pakistan and India under the supervision of a third party is the call of time as it will save it from unilateral suspension but can also bound the countries to follow it for evaluation purposes.
Pacts on diplomacy, economic interdependence or nuclear deterrence can be a good start. Inspiration for the structure or methods of such treaty can be taken from history like Oslo Accords or Algiers Accords as well as current thought processes of mediation.
The international community platforms have also bore enough brunt because of this arch-animosity and, especially, Pakistan does not deserve to be under prevailing pressure due to a belligerent, arrogant neighbor in the midst of its strive to become a successful country!
The global actors’ effort towards bringing Pakistan and India on table is commendable but they need to put a strong focus on these two countries’ current bilateral status and formulate binding mechanisms to keep negotiation as the definite choice. Indus Water Treaty and UN Commission on Kashmir are bright examples of such third party documented mediation between two, which helped the situations from getting worse and gave viable solutions.
As of current scenario, Pakistan is fully cooperative in this regard, mainly, for the sake of international peace and cooperation, unless dragged into conflict where right to defense becomes necessary.
*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of TDI
Koonj Altaf
Koonj Altaf is a PhD candidate in International Relations and an academic counselor based in Karachi, Pakistan.
