Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States will sat down in Abu Dhabi today, Tuesday, for the first trilateral talks since February, with hopes of a breakthrough low as a fifth winter of war approaches.
The two-day round, scheduled for November 10-11, is being brokered by Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, and special envoy Steve Witkoff.
The last meeting, in Geneva, produced no progress, and the diplomatic effort was later pushed aside by the US-Israeli war against Iran. A senior Ukrainian official said Kyiv has no particular expectations from the Abu Dhabi round.
Moscow’s team is led by Vladimir Medinsky, a nationalist aide to President Vladimir Putin, and also includes Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who delivered Russia’s pre-invasion demand that NATO pull back from Eastern Europe, for the first time.
The lingering dispute is territory, as Russia wants Ukraine to hand over the part of Donetsk region it still holds, which its troops have failed to capture, and says it will keep fighting otherwise.
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Kyiv has ruled out withdrawal while Trump has suggested Ukraine will end up with “a little bit different shape,” fueling fears in Kyiv and European capitals of a deal amounting to capitulation.
Europe’s role in these talks is also contested. Trump recently floated a “very big agreement” involving all of Europe, and Kushner has said a settlement needs direct Russia-Europe talks on security arrangements. Zelensky warned against a “Yalta 2.0,” a reference to the 1945 division of Europe.
National security advisers from France, Germany, and Britain are expected in Abu Dhabi, and Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said officials from Italy, NATO and the EU will also hold separate meetings with Kyiv’s team.
An EU official said the advisers would be nearby but would not take part in the negotiations, and the Kremlin insists the format stays trilateral. So, there are mixed signals and reports of Europe’s way of involvement in these talks.
Italy and Poland want a bigger European role; Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said the last thing Europe wants is Western Europeans making deals with Russia over Eastern Europe’s heads.
German Foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul, said Europe needs no new security architecture, and Berlin says the war must end before any such discussion begins. A German official called the Abu Dhabi round a “kick-off” with more sessions to come.
