Pakistan enjoyed a period of relative peace following military operations like Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, yet that calm has broken. Recent terrorism stats reveal a concerning rise; attacks increased by about 69% post-2022, peaking in 2023 at levels unseen since 2017. A large majority, upwards of 80%, of these attacks can be attributed to three main actors: Tehrik‑e‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan (ISKP), and Baloch separatists.
Practically speaking, this resurgence suggests that networks Islamabad believed to have dismantled have instead regrouped, and are striking back with alarming impact. Security experts caution that Pakistan’s earlier struggle never truly achieved complete victory. These “defeated” militants, it seems, are now emerging from hiding, ready to unleash a new wave of disruption.
The Afghan Factor: Safe Havens and Strategic Miscalculations
From a Pakistani army post, the view overlooks the Afghanistan border. Contrary to earlier hopes, Afghanistan, now under Taliban control, has become a haven for militants opposing Pakistan; the situation next door has proven a key factor in their resurgence. Back in 2021, when the Taliban regained power in Kabul, Islamabad had anticipated a “strategic depth” – essentially, a cooperative border.
However, the Taliban regime, generally speaking, has not acted against Pakistan’s adversaries. Consequently, TTP fighters currently train and operate with relative freedom on both sides of the Durand Line. To illustrate, in late 2024, Pakistani media outlets reported on cross border TTP attacks resulting in the deaths of several soldiers, which then prompted Pakistani airstrikes against alleged militant camps within Afghanistan’s Paktika province.
The new leadership in Kabul has even publicly referred to the TTP as “guests,” while at the same time denying any ability to effectively control them. To put it another way, the Afghan Taliban provide the TTP with both refuge and a degree of indirect protection. This security has allowed the TTP, among other jihadist groups, to regain momentum, thereby intensifying their attacks within Pakistan – a painful reminder that prior policy decisions in Islamabad haven’t played out as intended.
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Internal Gaps: NAP Largely Unfulfilled
Islamabad’s counterterrorism efforts, though present, haven’t quite reached their full potential, especially with militant groups regrouping. The National Action Plan (NAP) of 2015 – conceived as a comprehensive 20-point approach to combating terrorism – aimed to synchronize the efforts of the military, the government, and indeed, the society at large.
However, the implementation, generally speaking, fell short, with key reforms remaining undone. As one commentator in The Tribune pointed out, while the armed forces successfully conducted major operations and dismantled networks, the “non-kinetic” elements of the NAP have been, to a great extent, “largely unfulfilled.” Tasks such as the countering of hate speech, the reform of seminaries, and the tracking of terror funding, for the most part, only exist on paper.
Political instability has only made matters worse; the frequent changes in government and a rather inconsistent counterterrorism policy have, arguably, “set Pakistan back by 15 years.” Even the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA), designed to coordinate intelligence and policy, has been “largely sidelined”. Therefore, it appears Pakistan is without a continuous, agreed-upon plan. Instead of a proactive strategy, authorities seem to be resorting to reactive operations, which could unintentionally allow long-standing issues to persist.
The High Price of Complacency
The human cost of unchecked extremism in Pakistan has been devastating, a reality starkly illustrated by events like the 2014 Army Public School attack, where 132 children were brutally killed. Pakistani medics are frequently confronted with scenes mirroring those of bombing exercises – yet, these are the aftermaths of genuine terror attacks.
The 2017 ISIS-K suicide bombing at the Lal Shahbaz shrine in Sehwan, which claimed 72 lives, serves as another grim reminder. These tragedies are the bitter consequence of past oversights. Militants, once fostered as “strategic assets,” have, as US analysts cautioned, turned against their former sponsors, a phenomenon where Islamabad’s proxies “come back to haunt it.” Beyond the immense loss of life, terrorism deters foreign investment and strains international relations.
Consider, for instance, the late 2024 suicide bombing in Karachi, which resulted in the deaths of two Chinese engineers involved in the CPEC project, triggering strong diplomatic reprimands from Beijing; these attacks on foreign workers highlight the perilous external ramifications of Pakistan’s internal instability.
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Path Forward: Unity and Reform
Pakistan urgently requires a comprehensive, society-wide approach. Crucially, this involves reinvigorating national resolve and the National Action Plan (NAP). Countering terrorism must be elevated to a paramount concern, transcending partisan politics and demanding bipartisan commitment. Experts consistently emphasize the NAP as Pakistan’s most effective blueprint for combating militancy; its stipulations, regrettably often overlooked, must be fully enacted rather than remaining unimplemented.
In practical terms, this necessitates ongoing and meaningful collaboration among the military, the government, the judiciary, and the media. The goal is to execute the NAP’s twenty points not merely superficially, but in accordance with their true intent.
The time for vague policies toward Afghanistan has passed. Islamabad, working alongside regional allies like China, Iran, and Central Asian nations, needs to strongly encourage the Taliban to take decisive action against TTP sanctuaries. Regional diplomatic efforts should emphasize that Afghanistan cannot become a haven for terrorists. In fact, Pakistan should, if need be, link its engagement to actual measures taken by the Taliban against jihadists targeting Pakistan.
A revamp of intelligence and security measures is now crucial. Prevention guided by intelligence is essential. Pakistan’s counterterrorism coordination requires strengthening, perhaps by re-empowering the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA), and enabling seamless data sharing among security bodies. Community policing and investment in technology are paramount. It is worth mentioning that analysts frequently point out that NACTA has been largely overlooked, underscoring that past lapses in coordination have led to significant security vulnerabilities.
There must also be a greater effort to combat extremist ideology and underlying societal discontent. Long-promised educational reform and madrassa regulation as part of the NAP, should proceed quickly. As one observer put it, Pakistan is still fighting the ideological battle, and progress on madrassa reforms has essentially stopped.
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State initiatives should champion counter-radicalization by teaching tolerance in schools, aiding vulnerable youth in disadvantaged communities, and countering jihadi propaganda through media. Simultaneously, the government must address genuine grievances (such as those in Balochistan and the former tribal regions) via development and inclusion, aiming to diminish militant recruitment at its source.
The justice system requires bolstering. Indeed, counterterrorism finds success when perpetrators face quick prosecution. This necessitates accelerating trials in terrorism courts while also ensuring the safety of witnesses. Moreover, laws concerning cyber and financial evidence need modernization. Protracted delays alongside subpar conviction rates—often attributable to delayed justice and witness intimidation—have inadvertently cultivated impunity. Pakistan, therefore, must unequivocally communicate that terrorism will encounter not only substantial military force but also decisive judicial action.
A Moment of Truth
Pakistan faces a critical juncture. It’s not about who is in power or which region is targeted, these militants are after disorder, thriving on our vulnerabilities. Experts caution that allowing terrorists to reorganize is a risky proposition. Past approaches, like attempts at “strategic depth,” have proven counterproductive in the past.
Repeating those missteps is simply not an option for Pakistan now. Only a comprehensive strategy – encompassing strong security measures, political changes, and efforts to counter their ideology – can stop a comeback from turning into a disaster. Time is of the essence, and delaying action will come at a terrible price.
*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of TDI.
Hamna Wasim
With a background in International Relations, Hamna Wasim takes a strong interest in the South Asian region.
