Barely a fortnight later, the post-Pahalgam four-day Mini War imposed by India on nuclear-armed Pakistan, was being viewed as a turning point in the security paradigm of South Asia. The dust has not yet settled and the reverberations of “Operation Bunyanum Marsoos” launched by Pakistan in response to India’s “Operation Sindoor” are still being felt in India and across the world.
Pakistan’s hard-hitting response resulted in India’s defeat. It has brought about a major shift in the security calculus of and redefined deterrence in South Asia.
India’s government is still denying the defeat its forces suffered at the hands of Pakistan. It refuses to acknowledge the severe and critical losses it suffered during the short and intense engagement. India’s military command has mustered enough moral courage to publicly acknowledge some of the losses suffered by the Indian armed forces, in particular Indian Air Force (IAF), during the blitzkrieg by the armed forces of Pakistan. As an outcome of the war, the stability-instability paradox is no longer an option for India to exploit.
Until 1998, for fifty-one years after the two countries gained independence, India had an edge over Pakistan in the conventional domain, including manpower and military platforms. Pakistan countered the imbalance with a professional and better trained military. 28 May 1998 brought the tectonic shift in the security dynamics of South Asia when Pakistan became a declared nuclear-weapon state, establishing deterrence and restoring strategic stability.
It conducted five nuclear tests on 28 May followed by the sixth one on 30 May, in response to India’s five nuclear tests conducted on 11 and 13 May 1998, and one in 1974. Pakistan thus neutralized India’s conventional superiority in South Asia.
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The nuclearization of South Asia effectively checkmated any possibility of a large-scale conflict between the two neighboring regional nuclear powers. India was therefore exploiting Stability-Instability Paradox through sub-critical military actions. Throwing caution to wind in a volatile regional environment, India’s incumbent leadership has repeatedly committed acts of aggression against nuclear-armed Pakistan, and failed to follow the rational actor model.
Micheal Krepon, in his essay, The Stability-Instability Paradox, Misperception, and Escalation Control in South Asia (2003), underscored that “Western experience suggests that constructive engagement between nuclear adversaries can follow chastening experiences of flirting with disaster. The Cuban missile crisis occurred fourteen years after the Soviet Union joined the United States as a nuclear-weapon state.
Within twelve months, both nations implemented a ‘hotline’ agreement and negotiated an atmospheric nuclear test ban treaty”. Though a number of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) exist between Pakistan and India, evidence suggests that the Indian leadership, over the years, has failed to comprehend the consequences of fomenting terrorism in Pakistan and North American countries and indirect fifth generation warfare against countries in the region.
India rejects constructive engagement with its nuclear neighbors. India’s irresponsible behavior as a nuclear-weapon state could spell disaster for the region and the world.
The February 2019 Indian attack on Balakot was the manifestation of a sickening mindset in Pakistan’s eastern neighborhood, so was the more high-stake May 2025 aggression against nuclear Pakistan, an attempt by India to stamp its hegemony in the region.
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In 2019, within 24 hours of the Indian attack on Balakot on 26 February, Pakistan exercised its right to defend itself through punitive and measured strikes and shot down two Indian aircraft and captured one pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan, as part of its “Operation Swift Retort” on 27 February 2019. In May 2025, Indian hegemonic designs were torpedoed by Operation Bunyanum Marsoos, launched by Pakistan in response to India’s botched Operation Sindoor.
On both occasions, in response to Indian request, the US played a major role in deescalating the situation, though India refuses to recognize President Trump’s efforts in brokering ceasefire between Pakistan and India on 10 May 2025.
The reverberations of Pakistan’s knockout punch in response to India’s unwarranted aggression go beyond the downing of frontline Indian fighter aircraft including Rafale and SU-30MKI, destruction of S-400 Anti-Ballistic Missile units in Adampur and Bhoj, destruction of BrahMos missile storage sites and regional military headquarters.
Pakistan was thus able to demolish New Delhi’s hegemonic designs and establish itself as a “peer competitor” of India.
The outcome of ill-conceived and unwarranted Operation Sindoor was devastating for India from multiple perspectives:
(i) India’s standing as a dominant conventional military power in South Asia has been neutralized
(ii) Indian military’s inferior training and its consequent impact on their war fighting ability has been exposed. False narratives, chest-thumping, unfounded accusations against Pakistan and saber-rattling by India’s political leaders will not restore this shattered image
(iii) The failure of Operation Sindoor has seemingly created a split between India’s political and military leaderships, with military publicly blaming the political leaders for the colossal losses and the humiliating defeat suffered by the armed forces
(iv) It became apparent that India’s senior political and military leadership was conceptually incapable of fathoming the transformed dynamics of modern warfare
(v) What Indian military experienced was a systemic failure in the four-day war with Pakistan, which is likely to reappear if India attacks its nuclear-armed neighbor once again. The success of Pakistan’s Operation Swift Retort of February 2019 and Operation Bunyamun Marsoos of May 2025 proves this point.
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Failure of Operation Sindoor also:
(i) Proved that India is incapable of acting as “Net Security Provider” in the region, a role assigned to New Delhi by the US under its “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. India can no longer be trusted as a reliable Quad member by the other three Quad states to act as a counterweight to China. In fact, it never was
(ii) Highlighted Kashmir as a nuclear flashpoint
(iii) Caused immense damage to India’s international image. Despite India’s global aspirations and attempts to project power, India has remained bogged down in South Asia
(iv) Made analysts believe that it would take India many years to acquire the technological prowess that Pakistan’s armed forces have already achieved and demonstrated during the four-day war. Significantly, India which claims to have established a “new normal” in South Asia through Operation Sindoor ended up establishing a “new abnormal” for itself.
Unfortunately, many Indian women lost their Sindoor unnecessarily due to warmongering by India’s jingoistic leadership.
The unexpected negative outcome of Operation Sindoor has rattled India, particularly its political leadership. India’s attempt to use Pahalgam false flag operation as a means to establish its hegemony in South Asia failed miserably. Instead, India’s defeat has transformed the security paradigm of South Asia, especially the conventional balance of power.
Pakistan has thus emerged from this four-day mini war as a significant force to be reckoned with at the regional and global levels.
Much to India’s chagrin, since winning the war, Pakistan has closely and constructively engaged with the US, further enhanced its cooperation with China and strengthened its relations with a number of brotherly Muslim countries. International financial institutions have also been forthcoming in extending financial support to Pakistan.
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In contrast, India has failed in its attempts to implicate Pakistan in the Pahalgam false flag operation. This became evident when the SCO, BRICS and Quad member states declined to refer to Pakistan as the country responsible for the Pahalgam incident in the outcome documents of their recently held meetings. India’s narrative for “zero tolerance” for terrorism has become meaningless to international community due to its involvement in well-documented and irrefutable acts of terrorism committed in Canada, the US and Pakistan.
All Indian attempts to cover up the defeat and the huge losses they suffered during Pakistan’s measured response to their aggression in May 2025 have fallen apart. International community including President Trump have publicly endorsed Pakistan’s claim of having shot down India’s six frontline fighter aircraft.
However, this has not prevented IAF Chief, Air Marshal Amar Preet Singh, from making a fictitious claim three months after failure of Operation Sindoor about downing six Pakistan Air Force (PAF) aircraft. It is nothing more than a crude attempt to salvage the image of IAF and India. This unsubstantiated and ludicrous claim has been rejected by the strategic and defense community worldwide.
Significantly, India’s own Ministry of Defense in its statement issued on 9 August 2025, on the lecture given by the IAF Chief at the HAL Management Academy, made no mention of IAF Chief’s claim. Pakistan maintains that it shot down six Indian fighter aircraft on the night of 6-7 May 2025. The US President’s statements about IAF having lost several aircraft is also in consonance with Pakistan’s position.
Irrespective of whether India accepts it or not, Pakistan has come out better from the four-day war as a responsible country with a better trained, organized and technologically superior armed forces, which have established a new power balance and conventional deterrent in South Asia.
*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of TDI.
Azfar Bilal Qureshi
Azfar Bilal Qureshi is a retired Lieutenant Colonel of the Pakistan Army. He is currently serving as Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies Sindh (CISSS), a think tank based in Karachi, Pakistan. He can be reached at azfarqureshi.cisss@gmail.com
