The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a major global security event. Until now, neither side has achieved a breakthrough advantage. The factors leading to the outbreak of conflict and its stalemate are manifold. The significant influence exerted by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led by the United States before and during the conflict is an important reason that can not be ignored.
Before the Conflict: NATO’s Eastward Expansion and the Outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
NATO’s influence on the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can not be underestimated. After the Cold War, NATO’s strategic transformation prompted it to expand eastward, which led to the dissatisfaction of Russia.
With NATO’s eastward expansion, the security space that Russia pursues has been squeezed. From Yeltsin to Putin, the contradiction between Russia and NATO has always existed and deepened with the process of NATO’s expansion.
The relationship between Russia and Ukraine is complex. As Ukraine has gradually inclined towards the West and NATO, the relationship between Russia and NATO has also become increasingly strained. This has led to increased conflict and friction between the two sides, ultimately culminating in armed conflict.
The Strategic Transformation of NATO and the Decision to Expand Eastward
With the end of the Cold War, the enemies that NATO was created to confront no longer exist. However, NATO members believe that the security and political foundation of NATO’s existence is still solid, and they issued the London Declaration in 1990 and the Rome Declaration in 1991.
NATO hopes to build a security framework that integrates the existing joint mechanisms in Europe and to strengthen cooperation with Eastern European countries and former Soviet Union allies to meet multi-dimensional security challenges.
The statement made by Former US Defense Secretary Aspin regarding NATO’s transformation is more sound, that in the post-Cold War era, NATO has the potential to evolve into a coalition centered around shared democratic principles.
In 1999, NATO introduced the NATO Strategic Concept during the Washington Summit. This document outlines political and security policies for the Euro-Atlantic region, involving key entities like the European Union, the United Nations, and other international organizations. Additionally, it encompasses countries formerly part of the Soviet Union, including those in the CIS region. Notably, this document marked the official inclusion of NATO’s eastward expansion as a significant topic.
Several rounds of NATO’s eastward expansion have, in fact, seriously affected its relations with Russia. During Yeltsin’s reign, the Russian government was inclined to the West in an all-round way, hoping to be “recognized” by the Western world to a certain extent. NATO welcomed Russia’s positive intentions and established the NATO-Russia Council with the aim of fostering improved relations and addressing Russia’s concerns as NATO’s Eastward expansion.
However, the rapprochement and cooperation between NATO and Russia are difficult to achieve in the case of fundamental structural differences on the construction of the European security system.
On the one hand, NATO still regards Russia as a major security threat and hopes to expand eastward and further develop relations with CIS countries to achieve the effect of ensuring European security and containing Russia; on the other hand, Russia has always regarded Eastern Europe as an essential strategic buffer and hopes to restore and consolidate its status as a world power through cooperation with CIS countries.
As a result, Yeltsin’s pro-NATO policy suffered from domestic opposition. With Putin’s coming to power, Russia and NATO began to compete extensively. Although the two sides have a certain degree of anti-terrorism cooperation after the September 11 attacks, competition and confrontation have become the mainstream bilateral relations.
NATO’s Growing Engagement with Ukraine
American scholar Brzezinski has pointed out that the re-establishment of the empire through the CIS or Eurasianism would be unattainable without Ukraine. NATO believes that as long as Ukraine ultimately falls to them, it will be difficult for Russia to pose a real security threat to it.
At the same time, Ukraine refuses to be controlled by Russia. Therefore, it has been actively involved in NATO activities. The two sides are deepening their relations based on the NATO-Ukraine Committee.
After the Crimean incident, the bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine were utterly antagonistic. Donetsk and Luhansk, the birthplace of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, also followed the example of Crimea in an attempt to become independent of Ukraine and merge with Russia.
Although the Minsk Agreement signed in 2015 proposed a comprehensive solution to the East Ukraine problem in an attempt to alleviate the predicament, it had little effect.
NATO, Ukraine, and Russia get into strife on the East Ukraine issue. Finally, in the context of NATO’s attraction and the military threat posed by Russia from Zelensky’s government subjectively, Ukraine formally proposed to join NATO in early 2021 and to re-occupy Crimea and integrate into the West in an all-round way.
Until the end of 2021, the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has been tense. With the failure of several rounds of dialogue between Russia, NATO and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the conflict between Russia and Ukraine officially broke out on February 24, 2022.
NATO’s eastward expansion directly affects Russia-Ukraine relations, which has largely squeezed the security space to which Russia attaches great importance. Its eastward expansion and support for Ukraine are important reasons for the final outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
During the Conflict: NATO’s Support for Ukraine and Further Containment of Russia
After the outbreak of the conflict, NATO supported Ukraine in many ways out of consideration for its own interests. So far, in fact, NATO has indirectly participated in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict by supporting Ukraine and gaining a certain degree of benefits, further expanding its strategic security containment system against Russia.
On May 15, 2022, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO would provide unlimited military support to Ukraine. Based on the available information, NATO’s military assistance to Ukraine has primarily included providing lethal weapons, defensive military equipment, and intelligence support.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO’s military assistance to Ukraine has contributed to the change of the battlefield situation to a certain extent. It is difficult to obtain detailed information and quantities of NATO’s weapons assistance to Ukraine due to objective reasons. However, some NATO countries, including Germany and France, have recently indicated that their weapons depots are in urgent need.
With the deepening of the conflict, the lethal weapons supplied by NATO to Ukraine have been gradually upgraded from the old Soviet-style weapons of the Warsaw Pact era.
On December 21, 2022, Zelensky visited the United States and won a large amount of U.S. military assistance for Ukraine, including “Patriot” air defense missiles. It is conceivable that these weapons will lead to further stalemate on the front line.
In terms of defensive military equipment assistance, NATO countries have provided Ukraine with a large number of military equipment, including medical supplies, winter clothing, and gas masks since the beginning of the conflict.
In terms of intelligence support, NATO has used military electronic reconnaissance aircraft, commercial satellites represented by SpaceX, land-based electronic warfare systems, unmanned aerial vehicles and special electronic warfare aircraft to provide intelligence support to Ukraine.
During the conflict, the enactment of the Russian army was subpar. While initially, the Russian army’s electronic warfare capabilities allowed for some strategic advancements, they were not adequately prepared to counter NATO’s robust intelligence assistance. Instances of Russia’s shortcomings in places like Red Liman can be attributed to NATO’s intelligence backing.
NATO’s Strategic Containment of Russia
Politically, NATO’s support for Ukraine reflects its long-standing policy of containing and squeezing Russia’s strategic security space. And it also strives for a broader strategic space for itself and realizes NATO’s “northward expansion” to a certain extent.
By supporting Ukraine, NATO members have been reunified to some extent. What French President Macron said in 2019 about NATO’s brain death has become a thing of the past in the current situation. Facts have proved that NATO needs an “enemy” that can pose a substantial threat to ensure the unity of its members.
Before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, some European countries had relatively close relations with Russia, which naturally aroused the discontent of the United States. A cooperative and friendly relationship between Russia and Europe is undesirable for the United States.
Through political support for Ukraine in military conflict, NATO has identified the current enemy and promoted political unity within its member countries, essentially strengthening the control of the United States over NATO.
At the same time, stimulated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Finland and Sweden, which had been neutral and ambiguous about formally joining NATO, further felt the deterioration of the geopolitical security environment and chose to join NATO in 2022.
The accession of the two countries has provided the conditions for implementing the strategic concept of NATO’s “northward expansion” and establishing a “Baltic security circle” to contain Russia. At the same time, it also provides convenience for NATO to “March” into the Arctic and compete with Russia for Arctic resources.
It can be said that it is NATO’s political support for Ukraine that promotes the unity of its member States and makes NATO complete an essential link in the Nordic chain.
Future prospects
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is far from the dawn of the end. But whatever the outcome is, some of the implications for the participants in this conflict can already be determined. The actions of NATO in this conflict, which is under the actual control of the United States, have forced its members to accept the control and leadership of the United States and confront Russia in all aspects. At the same time, with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, NATO’s strategic blueprint to contain Russia and “March” into the Arctic has become clearer. Russia is bound to face a more United NATO on anti-Russian issues in the future, and it is difficult to see the hope of easing its relations with the West in the short term.
*The author is affiliated with the Department of Diplomacy and Foreign Affairs Management at China Foreign Affairs University.
**The views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Diplomatic Insight.
