The recent Iran-Israel conflict has significantly undermined the status-quo in the Middle East. The twelve-day war claimed the lives of hundreds on one hand, and drowned billions of dollars of both sides on the other. Trump’s initial claim of not dragging America into another unnecessary foreign war faded away when U-2 bombers hit three nuclear sites in Iran.
This was definitely an unprecedented step given the already planned nuclear talks between Iran and the Unites States in the coming days. But, Trump is known for his unpredictability. The Munich Syndrome, the fear of appeasement, has long been a dominant factor in determining the posture of US foreign policy towards Middle East. The same idea was reinforced in the recent episode.
Iran’s military capabilities, nuclear scientists, top strategic command, and infrastructure was severely affected in the Israeli air strikes. Major cities, including Tehran, were attacked. The worst part of this short kinetic conflict was the security breach and the role of internal perpetrators, notably Indian and Afghani citizens. The strategic use of external diaspora in Iran by the Zionist regime compelled the leadership, including the supreme leader, to hide inside the bunkers as they witnessed the irreversible losses on the very first day of the war.
Following its self-propagated ideology of cosmopolitanism, the U.S. directly used its bombers and infamous Tomahawk cruise missiles to attack the underground nuclear facilities in Iran, something otherwise not possible for Israel to achieve. In retaliation, Iran carried out symbolic strikes on the US bases in the Middle East. These were symbolic in the sense that Iran already had informed Qatar and the US regarding this operation. Some strategists are calling it a face-saving attempt from the Iranian side as the theocratic regime would have faced domestic flashback otherwise.
However, the socio-temporal and contextual analysis of the situation predicts that this was a deliberate attempt by Tehran with the intention to de-escalate. But, the direct reach of Iran’s ballistic and hypersonic missiles showcase the fact that it warned the opponent forces that it has sufficient capability to reach real-time targets in case further attacks are carried out.
The sudden announcement of the cease fire by Trump on his social media accounts shocked most people. Also, he bashed both parties, particularly Israel for the violation of cease fire agreement. The conflict thought de-escalated in time, has severe implications for Iran and the region.
Firstly, it exposed the vulnerability of non-nuclear states. For instance, when Pakistan fought a defensive war against India after it violated article 2(4) of the UN charter last month, Trump offered mediation to both states. But, in the case of Iran, the U.S. directly bombed Iran to push its leadership on the negotiation table. This move redirected the focus towards nuclear deterrence and the broader geopolitical effects are yet to be seen depending how Iran reacts to the future nuclear deal.
Secondly, it reinforced the fact that Iran is in a dire need to upgrade its defense system and attract like-minded states in case of future emergency. The air shield failed to intercept most of the missiles Israel and the U.S. fired. Apart from that, Iran must realize the evolving nature of warfare and should work on its air force to ensure the conventional deterrence.
Thirdly, it impacted the non-state actors, mainly Iran’s proxies that historically have been its first line of defense. Direct strikes and wartime dominance will deter them from attacking Israel. They may remember how it wiped out the top military leadership of Iran and inflict havoc on its infrastructure within few days before starting a conflict with Israel at least in the near future.
On one hand, the conflict suggests that Iran has to work on the axis of resistance to establish its credibility, and on the other hand, its shows that it is important for Iran to challenge the unipolar regional order in the Middle East. Otherwise, the atrocities will become a New-Normal.
Fourthly, the recent cease fire will impact Israel-Hamas war. One prediction, as evidenced by the recent Trump’s remarks, is that the truce will soon be finalized between the both parties. However, the Israel-Iran deal can negatively spillover into Gaza, giving right-wing Netanyahu a chance to continue his war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity. As no major Israel’s enemy is in a position to deter or challenge it, unfortunately it will redirect all its resources to continue its so called war. One can only hope that the second scenario does not happen.
Above all, this conflict exposed the internal security issues in Iran. The presence of Mossad’s agents in Iran, followed by the active kinetic and non-kinetic support from the Iranian officials and the external diaspora exposes the intelligence breach that further complicates the situation. Though not all people are alike, the excessive involvement of Indian and Afghani citizens in espionage activities, establishment of underground drone factories in major cities, and intelligence sharing must be timely with a proper long-term strategic vision. As it is being witnessed in the recent conflict, these weaknesses are detrimental for the security of Tehran.
In conclusion, one can hope that Iran should actively work to re-establish itself in the region. Otherwise, Israel’s emergence as a regional hegemon will severely effect the stability of the Middle East. Moreover, the recent conflict exposes bundles of vulnerabilities and the  internal shortcomings of Iran.
Muhammad Abdullah
Muhammad Abdullah is a final year student of International Relations at School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR), QAU. He can be reached at muhammadabdullahhaf235@gmail.
