The Indian Ocean, with its burgeoning significance as a mere conduit of international trade, is emerging as a battleground of power, commerce, and international rivalry.
While its importance has consistently been submerged by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, its integration into the South Asian geopolitical dynamic has, in recent years, shifted the focus to the region’s economic and strategic potential.
Due to the increasingly fierce competition for commerce and trade routes along with the presence of competing naval forces in the region, the Indian Ocean has gained the status as the blue frontier of regional influence and security.
The Indian Ocean’s Strategic Relevance
The Indian Ocean, which happens to be the world’s third largest ocean is critical for fostering international trade relations. It has always moved with the markers of tremendous oil trade with major sea lines of communication (SLOCs).
Oil lends itself to competition on a level of access and international politics alike. Strategically important arteries such as Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Strait of Malacca choke the oil trade, bringing the region to a strangle level of mania where it is a hot spot for geopolitical rivalry.
For South Asia, the ocean serves as a lifeline for securing energy resources, trade, and, increasingly, military presence. It is available to countries such as India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, who are not only deepening naval and maritime infrastructure for defensive purposes, but also to exert geopolitical influence.
India’s Maritime Ambitions
In the growing competition for maritime influence, India is leveraging its coastline of 7,500 kilometers and a considerable Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) to project itself as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
New Delhi aims to implement its strategy by strengthening partnerships with to counter China’s growing presence in the region through SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).
India’s strategic maritime pivot is marked by the deepening of naval ties with the US, Australia, and Japan (Quad framework) as well as through the commissioning of projects such as INS Vikrant and bilateral naval exercises.
India’s participation in Malabar 20225 and other joint naval exercises demonstrates its resolve to counter Chinese assertiveness and support a rules-based international maritime order.
China’s ‘String of Pearls’ and the Pakistani Nexus
Strategically located ports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port are linked to China’s ‘String of Pearls’ theory along the Indian Ocean’s periphery, which focuses on Beijing’s port and investment infrastructure expansions through the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI).
These ports are often said to have commercial purposes, but the reasoning is far from the utils that they may serve.
Pakistan’s modernization of the navy, which is receiving Chinese aid, turns China into a maritime chessboard partner. The acquisition of the Type-054A frigates and Hangor-class submarines is transmuting Pakistan’s naval doctrine to include sea control in the Gwadar region.
The maritime collaboration between China and Pakistan skews the power balance between China and India, aggravating the geopolitical tension in the western region of South Asia.
The Role of Middle Powers and External Actors
The region is also undergoing the attention of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, France’s naval presence in Reunion, and UK deployments in Diego Garcia as they compete to control the Indian Ocean.
In addition, smaller states in South Asia are engaging in geopolitical balancing acts between two superpowers. For example, Sri Lanka is balancing between an economically dependent partnership with China and strengthening security cooperation with India and the US at the same time.
Bangladesh is also maintaining a neutral navy posture while modernizing its fleet under the “Forces Goal 2030” initiative by acquiring frigates and submarines.
Non-Traditional Security Threats: Climate and Piracy
The Indian Ocean is not only a center of geopolitical military rivalry, but also a zone facing non-traditional security threats, including rising sea levels, illegal fishing, climate change, and piracy, particularly in the Gulf of Aden.
Navies in South Asia are becoming more active in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations, as well as in counter-piracy.
However, the lack of coherence due to conflicting interests, as well as overlapping and divergent strategic goals, frequently hampers a unified approach to maritime security.
Strategic Convergence or Collision Course?
The Indian Ocean’s emergent geopolitics pose a unique challenge: Will South Asia’s strategic future be cooperative convergence or destabilizing collision? Competition between more established powers and other regional and extra-regional players in the absence of a defined regional security framework is likely to be destabilizing.
In comparison to India’s vision for an inclusive Indo-Pacific region, China’s covert nuclear submarine movements raise the risk of future bilateral maritime flashpoints.
Strategic suspicion now dictates the port diplomacy of denying entry to Chinese vessels, as seen with the Chinese research ship at Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, which was turned away due to Indian pressure.
Southern Asian countries need to invest in strengthening cooperative maritime governance to prevent the Indian Ocean from becoming a battleground. The revival of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), implementation of better naval transparency, and the establishment of collective disaster and piracy response frameworks could ease tensions.
In addition, reframing the Indian Ocean’s perception as a zone of development can be achieved by incorporating Blue Economy initiatives on shipping, energy, marine ecosystems, and sustainable fisheries into the regional framework.
The Blue Frontier Is Now the Frontline
Reshaping South Asian ambitions, the Indian Ocean now exists as, a theater of ambition, assertion, and anxiety.
However, the region still needs to go beyond employing aircraft carriers and forming alliances in order to secure the territory. Strengthening the region’s vision and encouraging regional collaboration beyond zero-sum frameworks is equally critical.
The currents of the Indian Ocean transport more than just goods; they also transport the burden of South Asia’s geopolitical destiny.
Tahira Mushtaq
Tahira Mushtaq is a student of International Relations at the University of Sargodha. Her areas of interest include defense, security studies, and foreign policy.
