Wang Jin
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the dominance of the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan suggested a violent transformation. As an important neighboring state, China closely observes and evaluates the situation in Afghanistan.
First, China was surprised by the Afghan Taliban’s quick rise and seizure of Kabul. Although Chinese experts and analysts realized that the Afghan Taliban might take over Afghanistan after U.S. withdrawal, none had predicted that the Afghan Taliban could seize Kabul within such a short term. Most Chinese analysts and experts over Afghanistan also maintain that the Afghan government enjoys the upper hand against the Afghan Taliban on the battlefield. Even after the Afghan Taliban controlled several provincial capitals, many Chinese experts still stressed that Afghan security forces still had capabilities to resist and defend the offensives, and the war between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government might become prolonged.
Second, China reads U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan as irresponsible and unorganized. According to Chinese media and analysts, U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was unorganized and ill-prepared, and the withdrawal process without coordination with the Afghan government led to the sudden collapse of Afghan security forces. U.S. withdrawal led to a large number of Afghan refugees and regional instabilities. Therefore, according to China, U.S. should continue to provide assistance to Afghan people and assistance to Pakistan and Iran to settle a large number of Afghan refugees.
Third, China clearly and repeatedly stresses that no terrorists should be protected by the Afghan Taliban inside Afghanistan. U.S. presence in Afghanistan worked as “public goods” for regional states by eliminating extremism and terrorism. After U.S. withdrawal, China worries that the terrorists would go back to Afghanistan and seek protection and supports from the Afghan Taliban, just as what happened before 2001. From 1996 to 2001, hundreds of Uyghur terrorists joined the “training camps” set up by Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Many of these terrorists penetrated back to China to launch terrorist attacks against not only targets in Xinjiang but also targets in other provinces and even Beijing. Therefore, China has been always stressing that Afghanistan could not become the home base for regional terrorism and extremism.
The U.S. confounded withdrawal from Afghanistan is interpreted by China as Washington’s strategic failure. Many Chinese researchers and observers understand U.S. withdrawals as a historic moment as withdrawal from Saigon in 1975, maintaining it a historic turning point for US. Many even believe that what happens in Afghanistan is a feature that U.S.decline. For example, Diao Daming from China’s Remin University, stressed that the withdrawal from Afghanistan was a major “strategic failure” for both the Trump administration and the Biden administration.
Ideologically, U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is described by China as the failed case of the U.S. transplant of its democratic system into developing states. China’s successful economic and social development experience could be largely attributed to its specific “socialist system with Chinese characteristics”, which is strongly opposed and criticized by U.S. China believes that the Western democratic systems should not be copied directly into Asia and Africa where different political traditions and histories prevail. Although China recognized the Afghan government supported by the U.S. after 2001, China was doubtful about the sustainabilities of the Afghan government. In early 2021, before the U.S. decided to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Chinese embassy in Kabul published a statement calling for all Chinese citizens to withdraw from Afghanistan.
Most Chinese experts and analysts attributed the failure of US foreign strategy to US overconfidence over Western political principles. According to China, the debacle of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan constitutes an almost cultural defeat. The political structure supported by the US under the banner of western liberalism and democracy did not bring peace and stability to Afghanistan, but only widened the internal divisions between different Afghan political powers, religious groups, and ethnic groups.
Geopolitically, U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan suggests a vacuum in Central Asia. As an important state connecting South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, Afghanistan’s geopolitical value has been always highlighted. Pakistan, India, Russia, Iran, and even Turkey, hope to exert their influence in Afghanistan. U.S. withdrawal, according to many Chinese experts, creates a large vacuum in the region, and therefore competitions between different regional powers, especially between India, Pakistan, and Russia, could become intensified. After U.S. withdrawal, Pakistan’s role would grow significantly in Afghanistan and could lead to more intensified regional competitions.
Internationally, U.S. withdrawal suggests Washington could abandon and desert other allies whatever strategic promises had been made. Chinese academies define U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan as Washington’s betrayal of the Afghan government in Kabul. U.S. agreement with Afghan Taliban in 2020 was reached without the approval of the Afghan government, while U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was not well coordinated and organized with the Afghan government. Therefore, many Chinese experts maintain that once needed in the future, the U.S. could desert its allies in other parts of the world. “U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan means that the U.S. could betray any of its allies, maybe Taiwan and South Korea tomorrow.”
China feels growing strategic pressure from the U.S. and its allies to isolate Beijing from the rest of the world. Therefore, China hopes to describes US withdrawal as an opportunity to discredit U.S. international image. However, China also realizes the U.S.’s important role to eliminate terrorism in Afghanistan, and feels worried about the resurge of terrorism resulted from instabilities and crisis in Afghanistan.
The writer is an Associate Professor, and the Assistant Director, Institute of Middle East Studies, Northwest University of China.
*Views expressed in this article are the writer’s own and do not necessarily represent the position of this magazine
The Diplomatic Insight is a digital and print magazine focusing on diplomacy, defense, and development publishing since 2009.
