To actually understand the geopolitics of the Indus Waters System, we must dive into the Indus Waters Treaty, what it actually states and represents.
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is a water sharing agreement between India and Pakistan that was brokered by the World Bank in 1960. It divides the six rivers of the Indus River System, which are: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, between India and Pakistan.
India has exclusive rights over the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan has exclusive rights over the western counterparts (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab). Although India may use the western rivers for certain purposes such as irrigation and hydropower generation, it must not obstruct the flow into Pakistan. The source of the western rivers is on the Indian side; this gives India the advantage of regulating the flow of water into Pakistan.
In recent years, India has started to view the Indus Waters Treaty not merely as a “water treaty” but also as an asset and strategic lever in South Asian geopolitics.
India is able to regulate the flow of the western rivers due to the heightened construction of dams and hydroelectric projects in the region such as: Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project, Ratle Hydroelectric Project, Pakal Dul Hydroelectric Project, Baglihar Dam and Shahpurkandi Dam project. It uses these projects in a number of ways in order to control the flow of water — Ratle and Baglihar dams on the Chenab temporarily divert the river water via tunnels to produce electricity and then release it downstream.
Read More: Indus Water Treaty Cannot Be Suspended: World Bank
This means the total volume of the western waters reaching Pakistan has not decreased but the timing and rate of flow can be fluctuated by India. The Kishanganga project diverts water from the Kishanganga River to the Jhelum River after power generation. Pakistan opposes this due to its own Neelum-Jhelum project. Some projects are also used as storage dams which hold water, such as Pakal Dul, which allows India to choose when water is released.
Although this is allowed under the Indus Waters Treaty Article IV (9), it creates concerns for Pakistan about water, especially during the rather dry seasons between December and February when Pakistan relies heavily on the flow of western rivers from the Indus Waters System.
Over 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture depends on the flow of rivers of the Indus Basin Irrigation System. The western rivers contribute to about 75–80% of the surface water flow into Pakistan (Indus 60% and Jhelum/Chenab 20%). These rivers provide crucial water to major agricultural provinces, especially Punjab and Sindh, which are the backbone of Pakistan’s food production sector.
According to Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources, even a 10% flow disruption in the western rivers can lead to millions of dollars in crop losses. The Indus Waters System not only affects the food sector but also the water sector. Pakistan’s water availability has dropped from 5,260 cubic meters to below 1,000 cubic meters, nearing water scarcity.
A significant part of Pakistan’s electricity (27–30%) is derived from hydropower, which is largely generated from Jhelum and Indus rivers by the Mangla and Tarbela dams. Disruption in river flow can affect both energy and electricity stability.
Read More: India Advances Plans to Divert Pakistan’s Water
India has used the water system as a geopolitical lever on a number of occasions, such as after the 2016 Uri attack on an army base in Uri, Kashmir, when Prime Minister Modi declared, “Blood and water can’t flow together.” India reviewed the Indus Waters Treaty and signaled a potential shift in its approach and also sped up the construction on the Kishanganga and Ratle projects.
After the 2019 Pulwama attack, leaving 40 soldiers dead, India sped up projects like Shahpurkandi Dam to prevent unutilized water from flowing into Pakistan. After the latest Pahalgam attack in Kashmir, India’s Cabinet Committee on Security announced the immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri emphasized that the treaty would be held in “abeyance” until “Pakistan credibly and irrevocably ceases its support for cross-border terrorism.” Further on, in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attacks, India conducted releases of water from dams (Baglihar and Kishanganga). These releases were random and unannounced.
Sudden releases from the Baglihar Dam caused a sharp rise in water levels in the Punjab province. Areas like Muzaffarabad and Hattian Bala faced flood alerts as water released from Indian dams led to a rise in water levels in River Jhelum without prior warning. Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India is not required to consult Pakistan on sudden releases from run-of-the-river projects.
The “abeyance” of the Indus Waters Treaty gave India political power to bypass this norm. While the released water did not cause a severe problem, it sent a message that India can leverage, manipulate, and weaponize the water that flows into Pakistan.
Udayveer Singh
Udayveer Singh is deeply interested in international relations, especially the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia. Through experiences in MUN and football, he has developed a strong sense of strategy. He enjoys exploring how global affairs unfold and how power, policy, and people interact in shaping the world around us.
