Astana (TDI): Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, up from this year’s projected 4.8%, according to a fresh forecast by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). The forecast also suggests the growth rate might stay steady through 2026 and 2027.
Analysts believe this uptick will come largely from increased public investment and improvements in key sectors like construction, transport, and energy.
“We’re looking at nearly KZT 8 trillion in investment, roughly $15 billion, or 6% of GDP,” said Aigul Berdigulova, a senior analyst at the EDB. She explained that the national holding company Baiterek would lead much of this funding effort, The Times of Central Asia reported.
A boost from the Tengiz oil field, currently under expansion, could add around 0.5 percentage points to the country’s GDP next year, Berdigulova noted. That, along with regional development plans and ongoing infrastructure projects, forms the backbone of the positive projection.
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Among countries in the EDB bloc, Kyrgyzstan tops the list with a 10.3% growth forecast for 2025, followed by Tajikistan (8.4%) and Uzbekistan (6.5%). Kazakhstan is expected to match Armenia’s 5.5%, placing it ahead of Belarus (3%) and Russia (2%).
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But it’s not all good news. Inflation is shaping up to be a major challenge for Kazakhstan next year. The EDB predicts it could climb to 11.9%, the highest among member countries.
Berdigulova said that inflation could peak in the second quarter of 2026, before gradually easing to around 8.5% by 2027.
Farkhund Yousafzai is an Associate Editor at The Diplomatic Insight.
