London/Manila, (TDI): The economies of Central Asia are projected to sustain growth momentum in the coming years, according to the latest economic outlooks released by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Both institutions foresee positive trends in the five Central Asian countries, with economic growth anticipated in 2024 and 2025.
The EBRD’s latest “Regional Economic Prospects” report forecasts Kazakhstan’s economy to expand by 4% in 2024, driven by public spending to restore flood-affected infrastructure and housing.
The key sectors contributing to this growth include trade, transport, warehousing, services, and IT.
The report further predicts that the country’s GDP will grow by 5.5% in 2025, underpinned by the planned expansion of the Tengiz oil field.
Meanwhile, the ADB’s “Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2024” projects Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a slower pace of 3.6% in 2024, slightly down from its previous forecast of 3.8%.
The reduction is attributed to weaker service sector expansion, lower oil output, and disruptions caused by massive spring floods. However, the ADB expects the growth rate to pick up to 5.1% in 2025.
Kyrgyzstan Economy
For Kyrgyzstan, the EBRD estimates a robust GDP growth of 9% in 2024, moderating to 7% in 2025.
The expansion is expected to be fueled by investments in tourism, infrastructure, and gold exports, while elevated remittances and real wages are seen as key drivers of retail and wholesale trade growth.
ADB’s projections for Kyrgyzstan are more modest, estimating growth of 6.3% in 2024 and 5.8% in 2025.
The country’s Ministry of Economy has forecasted growth at 6.3% for 2024 and 6% for 2025, attributing the variance in forecasts to differing methodologies used by international financial institutions.
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The EBRD expects Tajikistan’s GDP to increase by 8% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, boosted by public-sector salary hikes and increased public infrastructure spending.
However, fluctuations in remittances from Tajik workers in Russia pose a potential downside risk to the country’s economy.
ADB’s outlook is slightly lower, predicting growth at 6.5% for both 2024 and 2025.
Turkmenistan is projected to maintain stable growth, with the EBRD forecasting an expansion of 6.3% in both 2024 and 2025.
Key growth drivers include public infrastructure projects and the expansion of the transportation sector, supported by a streamlined customs process.
ADB anticipates growth rates of 6.5% in 2024 and 6% in 2025, though weaker Chinese demand for Turkmen natural gas could present a challenge.
For Uzbekistan, the EBRD forecasts economic growth of 6% in both 2024 and 2025, citing increased remittances and tourist arrivals as well as market-oriented reforms and infrastructure investments.
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ADB projects similar growth rates of 6% in 2024 and a slightly higher 6.2% in 2025. Nonetheless, an energy deficit remains a potential impediment to achieving these targets.
The reports highlight the resilience of Central Asian economies despite global uncertainties, noting that continued reforms and infrastructure investments are key to sustaining growth in the region.
