A peaceful, prosperous, and stable Afghanistan would not be as important for any state as for Pakistan. The presence of a 2640 km border between the two states and a large Pashtun population living on both sides speaks volumes of the importance of friendly relations between the two states.
It can be safely declared that Pakistan’s security, stability, and economic development largely rely on how it establishes its relations with Afghanistan in the ongoing geo-political environment. Pakistan, therefore, needs to see its relationship with Afghanistan beyond the traditional security-centric lens and diversify its options in Afghanistan, a state in desperate need of economic assistance, diplomatic recognition, and trade opportunities.
The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021 has strengthened the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Despite numerous operations launched by the government and military establishment of Pakistan to counter terrorism in the last two decades, the country finds itself back at square one in terms of effectively curbing terrorism. The data compiled by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) reveals that terrorist incidents in Pakistan have surged following the Taliban takeover.
| Year | Number of Terrorist Incidents |
| 2021 | 89 |
| 2022 | 262 |
| 2023 | 306 |
| 2024 (so far) | 259 |
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) alone has experienced over 300 attacks in 2023, with the majority claimed by the TTP. Not only has the cross-border movement of militants, smugglers, and arms increased but the insurgency and militancy spillover into Baluchistan presents another threat to the country’s stability.
In addition, the Durand Line dispute and the interconnected Pashtunistan issues have also promoted the state of Pakistan to view Afghanistan with a strict security lens. While Pakistan considers the Durand Line an international border, Afghanistan has historically refused to recognise it, viewing it instead as a colonial imposition that unfairly divided Pashtun tribes and their traditional lands. This dispute is intricately linked with the broader Pashtunistan issue, which revolves around the aspiration for a separate state for the Pashtun people.
With the resurgence of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, these issues have come to the forefront once again. The current Taliban regime, much like its predecessors, is keen on removing borderline. Enayatullah Khwarizmi, the spokesperson for the Taliban’s Ministry of Defence, has criticized fencing the border. He reiterated that Pakistan has “no right” to divide the Pashtuns on both sides of the border. The prospects of this issue being resolved shortly are also grim, making the border “a place beholden to imagination, myth, and fiction”.
While the legality of the Durand line is a never-ending debate and different policy-makers, practitioners, legal experts, journalists, and scholars have different views on the Pashtunistan conflict, these issues need not overshadow the broader engagement between the two states on other matters of strategic importance. These include but are not limited to addressing the issues of water-sharing, narcotics trade, and refugee crisis and building future relations on the pillars of economic and diplomatic integration.
Water-sharing, a defining aspect of the complex and turbulent relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan, makes cooperation and mutual understanding between the two countries not just desirable, but essential for their shared future. Pakistan and Afghanistan have seven rivers in common, the prominent ones being Chitral, Kabul, Kurram, and Gomal. Since both states rely on agriculture for running their economies, they need to have a mutually agreed plan on how to share and manage the waters of these rivers.
The illicit trade of narcotics is another significant issue affecting Pak-Afghan relations. Afghanistan produces 85 percent of the world’s opium, which is smuggled into neighboring countries, as well as Europe, the Near and Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. Pakistan has also been grappling with this menace, with drugs being smuggled into the country via road transport. In this regard, Kabul and Islamabad must pool their resources and efforts to combat and eradicate this curse.
Finally, there have been lots of issues and mistrust between the two countries over the Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. As of 2023, UNHCR has estimated 3.7 million Afghans living in Pakistan. This large influx has strained the already hostile relationship between the two countries. The Pakistani government has initiated the deportation of hundreds of thousands of unauthorized refugees which Afghanistan has criticized as ‘unilateral’ and ‘humiliating’ actions. To manage the refugee crisis humanely, Pakistan could work with international organizations like the UNHCR instead of unilateral deportation actions.
In international relations, they say, you can change your friends but not your neighbors. This means that you have to have good and beneficial relations with your neighbor. An insecure and hostile Afghanistan would create knockout effects in Pakistan in the form of terrorism, separatism, illegal trade, opium smuggling, ethnic tensions, and political instability. With such a domestic background, Pakistan would never be able to retain existing foreign trade and investment opportunities, let alone attract new ones.
Security is an important dimension of Pak-Afghan relations due to the extended borderline between the two states and the presence of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which is quite notorious worldwide due to its linkages with terrorism and its notorious human rights record. Moreover, Pakistan, already facing security threats and border issues from India, can’t afford a two-front security dilemma. It is high time to secure the border at least from the Afghanistan side to focus on other areas. While strengthening surveillance and border control infrastructure has not served Pakistan’s interests in the past, the country needs to diplomatically engage with the Taliban regime to address mutual security concerns such as terrorism, smuggling, and narcotics trafficking.
On the economic front, Pakistan should make efforts to increase bilateral trade with Afghanistan. The trade volume between Pakistan and Afghanistan declined over the past decade, dropping from $1.5-$2 billion to $870 million in 2020. This reduction was attributed to strained relations between the former Kabul governments and Islamabad, with both sides accusing each other of harboring terrorists. While there came a negligible comeback in 2023 with a bilateral goods exchange amounting to $1.8 billion, there is a need to explore new economic avenues. A study by the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) states that, for Pakistan, Afghanistan is an untapped market with a value of more than four billion US$ for Pakistani exports.
Moreover, there are around 18 trading points on the Pakistan-Afghanistan international border including two big border crossing points at Torkham and Chaman. Thus Afghanistan has been nearly dependent upon Pakistan for its international trade through the former seaports and Pakistan must take advantage of its strategic geographic location to provide a transit route not only to Afghanistan but expand its transit trade network to Central Asian Republics (CARS). Renowned Pakistani economist, Dr. Ishrat Hussain also argues that peaceful economic cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan would not only improve bilateral trade, but it could facilitate trade and transit facilities to connect South Asia with Central Asia.
Alongside diplomatic and security measures, Pakistan could increase its humanitarian aid and development assistance to Afghanistan, including support for infrastructure projects, healthcare, education, and capacity building to foster long-term stability and socio-economic progress.
In this regard, Pakistan needs to follow the suit of its neighbor India. India was historically hostile towards the Taliban but its recent policies indicate its willingness to engage with them on soft-side initiatives like loans and development assistance.
Since the US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11, India’s approach towards Afghanistan has been based on assistance-driven foreign policy measures rather than on engaging militarily in the war-torn country. Projects like the Afghan-India Friendship (Salma Dam) and the Shahtoot Dam in Kabul province serve as evidence of India’s substantial support to Afghanistan’s hydropower ambitions. India’s financial assistance, which is estimated to be worth more than USD 3 billion, demonstrates its dedication to supporting Afghan infrastructure.
India has been engaged in a development partnership with Afghanistan, encompassing over five hundred projects across all 34 provinces in crucial areas such as power, water supply, road connectivity, healthcare, education, agriculture, and capacity building. Additionally, India has collaborated with the United Nations World Food Programme (UNWFP) to provide humanitarian aid, including food and medicine, to the Afghan people. The Indian government has supplied 47,500 MTs of wheat to UNWFP centers in Afghanistan, along with medical assistance.
In light of the above discussion, Pakistan’s establishment needs to revisit its Afghanistan policy going beyond a security-centric perspective to address the bilateral relationship’s broader economic, humanitarian, and diplomatic dimensions.
Only by adopting a comprehensive and forward-looking policy, can Pakistan transform its relationship with Afghanistan into a partnership built on mutual respect, shared interests, and collective prosperity. The strategic importance of Afghanistan for the peace and stability of Pakistan and the entire region has been underscored by Allama Iqbal long before the creation of Pakistan in the following words:
Asia is like a body made of water and clay
The Afghan nation is like a heart in the body
Peace in Afghanistan brings tranquility to Asia
Chaos in Afghanistan brings disorder to all of Asia
**The opinions in this article are the author’s own and may not represent the views of The Diplomatic Insight. The organization does not endorse or assume responsibility for the content.
