Amidst the current saga in Yemen after STC’s sweeping takeover of Yemeni government’s territory, not many observers recognized the quick Saudi-UAE de-escalation as the diplomatic feat it is.
Much analysis focuses on what lies beyond the de-escalation; on what lies in the future of Yemen and the Gulf neighbors. But here, I explore what is behind the timely de-escalation. Of course, the future is the imminent concern. The underlying reasons of instability have not gone away.
The ingredients for a political, diplomatic, and humanitarian disaster are alive and well: divergent political goals of heavily involved middle powers, multiple local actors with varying loyalties, instability and fears of humanitarian crisis, terrorist presence.
Yet, Gulf Arab diplomacy has shown signs of reliable maturity. Globally, diplomacy is giving way to raw emotional outbursts, wars of words, controversy-seeking, and military posturing. Given the trend, the divergent neighbors could have followed suit.
Though both showed serious resolve to protect their national interests, they quickly stepped down the escalation ladder as soon as their actions brought feedback.
First let us get a quick summary of escalation and de-escalation as the situation developed:
- Southern Transitional Council – the UAE-backed separatist faction – seized control of Hadhramout and Al-Mahra from Rashad al-Alimi-led government forces in December 2025 (+1 for Escalation).
- KSA and UAE pushed for diplomacy between the factions, sending joint delegations to Aden to engage the factions (+1 for De-escalation). It didn’t come to fruition though, as the two powers pursued divergent goals.
- Saudi Arabia – seeing the complete withdrawal of its preferred forces – demanded STC to return the seized territories on 25th December. Of course, stern demands don’t go anywhere in international politics.
- And it also called for dialogue. UAE’s foreign ministry even put out a statement “supporting” Saudi diplomatic efforts for stability in Yemen. Contradictory yet diplomatic approach from the UAE (+2 DE).
- But diplomatic statements had their limits. The STC wasn’t listening – and UAE’s backing was clear. On 30th December, KSA called out UAE’s two-faced approach. Same day, Yemen’s official body ended military pact with UAE. Additionally, the Saudi-led coalition conducted airstrikes on suspected weapons shipments for STC (+2 E).
- That day showed Saudi Arabia wasn’t going to just sit back and let the STC strengthen. The increasing Saudi pressure prompted the UAE to withdraw its forces from Yemen, a de-escalating step by UAE (+3 DE).
- The new year brought a Saudi-backed counter offensive (+3 E).
- As soon as Saudi-backed forces started mounting gains, they also invited all factions and STC for a comprehensive dialogue (+4 DE).
- The STC – with mounting losses and its backer UAE also urging for dialogue – agreed to talks in Riyadh (+5 DE).
So 5 de-escalating steps with 3 major escalations – a net de-escalation.
The story is ongoing. Yet, what’s noticeable is the continuous attempts at dialogue & de-escalation despite serious national interests on the line.
The episode sparked fears of a Saudi-UAE confrontation. Dangerous scenarios seemed imminent: a miscalculation spiraling into diplomatic crisis; or worse, a skirmish leading to war.
The prospect of two regional oil-rich giants in direct conflict wasn’t going to end well for anyone. But the doom scenarios didn’t come to pass thanks to diplomatic stances of the two countries.
How did the highly ambitious middle powers come to de-escalate so timely?
Saudi Vision 2030 Factor
In 2016, when Vision 2030 was unveiled, 2030 was far away. There was arguably much room for mistakes. And oh the Saudis made many with aggressive and assertive moves. Yemen intervention, Qatar blockade, Khashoggi murder, Iran hedging — all of which undermined KSA’s global standing and hurt Vision 2030.
It’s 2026 now, with just 4 years left. MBS has locked in, showing serious commitment to fulfill the grand promise. There is little room for misadventures at this stage. The Saudis have learned that diplomacy and keeping appearances is more conducive to its program rather than assertiveness.
Its recent actions, both escalating and de-escalating, show that Saudi calculations keep Vision 2030 as the highest national goal. It launched the counter-offensive to bring the factions to the dialogue table to actually avoid getting bogged down.
UAE’s Calculations
The UAE seemed to back off rather quickly. UAE is engaged in civil conflicts throughout the Arab world – Libya, Syria (previously), Sudan, Somalia – also Yemen. But all those conflicts remained far beyond its borders and had minimal effects on UAE’s own stability.
It was different this time. It was coming closer to home. KSA and UAE are neighbors, and any proxy conflict in Yemen could have reached UAE’s border quickly. Plus, UAE’s destabilizing actions in conflicts it engages in are increasingly questioned.
Any escalation with Saudi Arabia would have threatened its economy and global political standing. Backing off and offering dialogue protected its diplomatic standing. It’s clear that UAE doesn’t want to pay the price of engaging in a real conflict close to home.
Qatar Factor?
If the situation in Yemen continues to de-escalate, it would be another win for Gulf Arab diplomacy. The other major one was the resolution of Qatar crisis in 2021.
The Saudi-led group aggressively blockaded Qatar in 2017, but faced repercussions in the form of reduced regional leverage. During 2010s, Saudi Arabia and UAE also ambitiously hedged against Turkey and Iran across the region.
None of it served their national interests, and they eventually turned to diplomacy as the decade changed.
UAE signed Abraham accords. Qatar blockade was lifted; ties fully restored. Saudi Arabia stopped military intervention in Yemen, sent an ambassador to Iran, improved ties with Turkey.
These experiences made the diplomatic and dialogue capabilities of both countries stronger and reliable. Gulf powers remain ambitious but have adopted an open and cautious approach. We are seeing an example of “mature” diplomacy in a world of diplomatic breakdown.
Monarchic Peace
There are only a few true monarchies left in this world. Most concentrated in Gulf, they face similar threats and challenges in the long term:
- Potential Arab Spring 2.0 – public unrest, Muslim Brotherhood revival.
- Economic reliance on natural resources – writing on the wall: oil won’t sustain them long.
- Navigating security in a confusing, non-polar, anarchic world – Iran, terrorism (Al-Qaeda, ISIS), Israel. Can’t rely on US anymore.
It is in none of their interests to see each other politically destabilize, as it could trigger a chain reaction bringing the Gulf monarchies to an end.
Given these observations, it doesn’t seem strange how Saudi Arabia and UAE managed to contain escalation despite serious divergence. These factors will also continue to shape how both nations manage the fragile situation in Yemen.
Hassan Ahmed is an IR graduate with research and writing experience in IR theory and great power politics. He previously worked as a research fellow at IPDS and wrote for The Diplomatic Insight. His published works include "Reimagining US-Pakistan Ties" and a Book Review of "War Without Winners."
