For long, South Asia has been attributed as one of the most vulnerable hotspots in the world. Ex-union states, Pakistan and India, since their emergence, have altogether raised global alarms for risks of advertent or inadvertent escalations. In the prevalent nuclear age, any sort of miscalculation will prove detrimental not only for the hostiles but for the whole globe and its inhabitants. The contemporary dynamics of South Asia regards heightened regional instability and urges for an utmost resolve.
Unrest in Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and recurring Pak-India tensions are determining the region’s backslide. Being drivers of the region, Pakistan and India can translate regional hostilities in peaceful coexistence and integration.
In South Asia, the Stability-Instability Paradox has been disrupting the advent of regional peace and cohesion. Despite the match in nuclear and conventional patterns of deterrence, strategic stability still remains under question. Pakistan and India continue to engage in conflicts refuting principles of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) and escalation control. These skirmishes have altogether raised the bar for crises instability and stretched space for any miscalculation. Regardless of atomic stability, engagement in sub conventional or proxy war domain remains the ultimate mean to internally subjugate the adversary.
This very strand of Stability -Instability Paradox continues to shape the fate of these rival nuclear power nations. Sub-conventional means and hybrid warfare remain the primary source of aggression since both states opted for nukes back at the end of the 20th century.
Starting from Mukti Bahini to Punjab and Kashmir insurgencies, proxies have actively contributed toward separation movements. Recent liberation movements of Baloch Liberation Army and Khalistan Movement are alleged to be gravely influenced by the counterparts. Instability in northeastern regions of Manipur and Assam in India are assumed Pakistan sponsored whereas on the other side Pakistan has come up with concrete evidence of underlined RAW involvement in exacerbating the political and social turmoil in Pakistan.
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Primarily TTP and BLA are accused to get continuous support and resources from India to carry on their anti-state ventures and terrorism. Arrest of Indian Navy spy Kalbushan Yadav exposed the network of Indian intelligence groups in exploiting interests of border states. Another sub-conventional factor in deteriorating bilateral ties is the assertion of cross-border terrorism and false flag operations which set the base for building up a justified and hostile state’s posture. Although these adventures are then equally translated in securing political objectives.
Likewise in Parliament attacks of 2001 and 2008 Mumbai attacks India blamed Pakistan for disrupting its peace and stability utilizing non-conventional means like JeM and Lashkar e Taiba (non-state actors). Similarly, Pakistan portraying the mirror accused India of carrying its false flag operations to legitimize coercion against Pakistan. Citing from 2016 Uri attacks, 2019 Palwama till the recent Pahalgam crises Pakistan has vibrantly refuted the allegations of its involvement and labeled it ‘a ridiculous instrument’ of Indian domestic politics (especially under BJP).
Amidst series of events and confrontational patterns it is quite evident that South Asian strategic conundrum remains volatile despite possession of nuclear balance and assets of Mutually Assured Destruction MAD. To bridge up parity of the Stability-Instability Paradox and to assure lasting peace in South Asia its need to embrace pathways for bilateral cooperation and integration. The phenomenon of regionalism is progressing constantly with the success stories of various regional, sub-regional, minilateral and multilateral organizations.
Globally regionalism and multilateralism are becoming more viable and resilient, reinforcing resonance for alliance politics and collective security mechanisms. A constructive start would be from the revitalization of SAARC, which has remained dormant for a while. Being the Hubs, both Pakistan and India could become a driving force for reinstating South Asian integration process by actively engaging under frameworks of SAARC. Journey from Free Trade Area FTA towards customs and monetary unions could be achieved which would elevate standard of living and draw collective benefits for the masses. Economic interdependence and interlocked interests can coerce states to abide by interstate bargaining rather confrontation.
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Exemplification of the EU is an ideal to instigate how adversaries in world wars end up in sustainable peace and stability by means of integration. The same formula can run for the rest as well, inciting frameworks of developing trust and ending up in concrete structures of economic and collective security. For Pakistan and India, they could initiate the process by adopting ‘the Chinese formula’ that secures bilateral trade of about US$127.7 billion with India despite border disputes and periodic skirmishes.
Carving avenues for bilateral trade and interconnected economies would play a pivotal role in reinforcing the integration process in South Asia. In parallel, it is the time that Pakistan and India could re-invest in confidence building measures and human capital to enhance economic terms and prosperity. Aligning political will, interlocking economics, and sincere leadership are key determinants in this regard. Fostering engagement processes and consolidating integration frameworks would ultimately raise thresholds for conflicts, and overlapping interests would promote perpetual peace. By prioritizing integration over rivalry, Pakistan and India can steer South Asia towards a stable and a prosperous future.
Ending over an optimistic note, the rise of Gen Z has spawned a new transition that is being witnessed throughout the globe. Dynamics are changing and Youth are emerging as a decisive variable in contemporary global politics. Turning tables in Bangladesh, Nepal, New York, raising voices for international norms and active advocacy for human rights illustrates Gen Z’s socio-political consciousness and ambitions to challenge the existing status quos. In this regard, it is highly anticipated that the region of South Asia would fall prey towards this global transition where forthcoming leadership pays higher regards for human welfare, shared security, and regional interdependence.
*The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not represent TDI. The contributor is responsible for the originality of this piece.
Khawaja Touqeer Ahmad
Khawaja Touqeer Ahmad is student of International Relations at Quaid i Azam University, Islamabad. He takes keen interest in policy making and geopolitics. He can be reached at touqeer.khawaja786@gmail.com
