Diplomacy is about effectively navigating uncertainty. The recent 10-Year defense framework pact between the United States and India clearly shows how rapidly geopolitical tensions can shift. Only a few months ago, trade disputes and reciprocal accusations were threatening to end the highly publicized “major defense partnership” between Washington and New Delhi, however, the US War Secretary Pete Hegseth and India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh signed an agreement to strengthen the military relationships between the two nations. This agreement was signed when the trade and tariffs rift was still ongoing in the background, thus raising questions about its long-term viability and implications for regional peace.
This defense pact is the renewal of previously signed 2005 and 2015 decade long agreements between the two countries. The agreement will enhance interoperability (the ability to operate together) and allow for smoother coordination of joint military operations, and enhanced responses to common threats particularly the increased aggressive posturing of China within the Asia-Pacific region. The defense agreement provides for technological transfer, and cooperative industrial development, as well as provisions for developing advanced defense systems including drones and precision guided munitions.
The agreement enhances India’s “Make in India” campaign and provides New Delhi access to sensitive US technology that would normally be restricted to NATO member nations including the F-35 fighter jet. In exchange, the US receives a foothold in what is arguably the largest defense market in the world, providing the US a platform to counter China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, the renewed partnership must be viewed in conjunction with the strained relations between Washington and New Delhi during the Trump Administration. The current Trump administration has so far a transactional focus toward resolving trade disputes before unifying strategically with other nations. The Trump Administration imposed tariffs on Indian goods and criticized New Delhi’s relationship with Russia. The timing of the new defense agreement follows the discord between the two nations thus indicating that Washington recognized India’s strategic importance in the Asia-Pacific region to be greater than the current trade disputes and not a true rapprochement.
For India, the agreement increases the potential for dependency on US defense systems and thus might undermine its commitment to achieving strategic autonomy, a position that has enabled New Delhi to maintain a balanced relationship with both Moscow and the West.
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From a South Asian perspective, the agreement has significant implications that require thoughtful analysis. There are two primary areas of concern:
Firstly, the agreement will likely exacerbate existing regional power asymmetries. Increased military cooperation between the US and India, including intelligence sharing and joint naval exercises will likely embolden India to take a more assertive stance along disputed borders not only with China but also with Pakistan. Islamabad has been increasingly concerned about the growing relationship between Washington and New Delhi under the Trump Administration and will view this agreement as a serious threat to its own security balance. As Pakistan becomes increasingly aligned with China, this agreement will likely reinforce a divided alliance structure in the region, positioning the US-India alliance against the China-Pakistan alliance.
Secondly, the inclusion of new domains such as cyber warfare, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and undersea combat raises new risks. While the agreement aims to bolster deterrence in the Indian Ocean, it will likely provoke retaliatory actions from Beijing which may view the agreement as an attempt to contain it strategically. China’s increasing naval presence in the Indian Ocean through its Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) is already perceived by India as a source of concern and may push for the emerging struggle among the great powers. As a result, smaller neighboring states may feel uneasy about the growing militarization in the region and may disrupt the fragile regional balances.
For Pakistan, the ambit of recently signed Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Arabia should be expanded beyond the Riyadh-Islamabad partnership, including the rest of Muslim states such as Turkey and those having upper hand in technological prowess. As a result, this will not only secure vital technology transfers to enhance Pakistan’s defense modernization but also promote a joined front against mutual threats. Additionally, Islamabad should capitalize its improving relationships with the US to promote strategic stability in the region.
That being noted, we can say that the Washington and New Delhi defense framework hints a strategic positioning amid global insecurities it does not solve the underlying problems in the relationship. For Pakistan and the broader region, the agreement underscores the necessity of cautious diplomacy to maintain strategic equilibrium. The potential benefits of the agreement for India may come at the expense of increasing rivalry, underscoring the urgency of multilateral dialogue to mitigate consequences. Ultimately, the test of this agreement will be whether it creates stability or fuels further conflict as the Asia-Pacific geopolitical landscape evolves.
*The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of TDI.
Musavir Hameed
Musavir Hameed is currently serving as Research Officer at Balochistan Think Tank Network, Quetta and can be reached at musavirkhan88@gmail.com
