The 2024 UK Elections signify a turning point in British political history underlining various political, social, and economic issues. This election will define the direction in which the United Kingdom will be heading. Subjects like the economy after COVID-19, health care, immigration, and climate change will be at the forefront of the political agenda.
In addition, the consequences of Brexit persist, affecting both policy at home and Britain’s place in the world.
Consequently, the 2024 UK Elections go beyond the domestic level since they play a role in shaping international politics as well. It will address how the UK will engage with key powers, as well as its role in international organizations.
In addition, the policies it will take on international economic and environmental matters are also included. Polls conducted indicate that these elections are important in addressing various issues affecting the United Kingdom. It can rebuild the public confidence in the government institutions.
Historical Context
The United Kingdom has a parliamentary system of governance and the electoral system has been in existence for many years. The genesis of the modern UK elections can be dated back to the Reform Act of 1832.
It started the process of the enfranchisement of the electorate and the reform of parliamentary constituencies. Major landmarks include the Representation of the People Act of 1918.
It enfranchised women who were over 30 years and all men who were over 21 years and the 1928 Act also gave equal vote to women who were over 21 years. More recently, the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act was designed to add stability by scheduling general elections every five years.
However, crucial events that have defined the political climate have occurred in the run-up to the 2024 elections. In the UK, two significant political events were the 2016 EU referendum and the December 2019 general election that solidified Brexit. In the 2019 election, there was a decisive win for the conservatives led by Boris Johnson.
Political Landscape
The 2024 UK Elections feature a dynamic political landscape dominated by two major parties: the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. Rishi Sunak, the current Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party has largely campaigned on the issues of economic dominance, protectionism, and Brexit policies. He has led measures towards macroeconomic stability and containing disease outbreaks.
Keir Starmer is the Labour leader who prioritizes social justice, economic distribution, and high-quality public services. Starmer has acted to bring his party together and promote its agenda on topics, such as health, schooling, and the environment. By his leadership, Labour will have a vision as a party in opposition to the Conservative government and meeting the needs of the populace.
Recent polls suggest a slight difference in the overall voter sentiment concerning major issues like the economy and healthcare. There are indications that issues of economic policies and leadership qualities are key determinants of the elections. Defensive strategies are being employed by both sides to appeal to the maximum number of voters. It can present their concepts of what the United Kingdom should be after Brexit and COVID-19.
Electoral Process and Mechanisms
For the 2024 UK elections, the UK electoral system remains the same with the FPTP method in which a party that has gained the highest votes per the constituency is awarded the House of Commons seat. It has been criticized on issues of representatively, for it usually benefits large parties than small ones.
Political campaign strategies have undergone some drastic changes following the use and inclusion of digital media. Candidates and parties continue to employ targeted appeals to voters with particular emphasis on social networks. Twitter and Facebook also enable direct advertising and direct interaction with the electorate, which is very important in influencing the electorate.
Research has found that the adoption of social media platforms such as Instagram and YouTube can increase voter turnout and active participation, especially among the youth. Besides, challenges such as the ‘echo chamber’ where users are mostly fed information that supports their own biases affect political literacy and general voter turnout.
Public Opinion and Polls
During the 2024 UK Election, pre-election polls are revealing critical insights into voter sentiment and key demographics. According to recent surveys, the electorate is divided, with the Conservative Party and the Labour Party neck and neck in many polls. The Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has been polling around 35-38%, while the Labour Party, under Keir Starmer, is close behind 33-36%.
Public sentiment is heavily influenced by key issues such as economic stability, healthcare, and immigration policies. Surveys indicate that 45% of voters are primarily concerned with economic policies, reflecting ongoing worries about inflation and the cost of living. Additionally, healthcare remains a critical issue for 40% of the electorate, particularly considering the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on NHS services.
Demographically, young voters (ages 18-30) are showing increased engagement, largely influenced by social media campaigns. Studies show that over 60% of young voters are active on platforms like Twitter and Instagram, where they are exposed to political content that shapes their voting intentions. This demographic is crucial for both major parties, as their support could swing the election outcome.
Potential Outcomes and Scenarios
In case the Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak forms the government, it is expected that more focus will be pulled towards economic balance, defence and policies after Brexit. The government led by Sunak is expected to continue implementing more fiscal policies and measures to address the national debt and grow the economy. However, issues like inflation and public dissatisfaction towards healthcare and social services may not be eradicated.
On the other hand, a new Labour Party win under Keir Starmer could lead to major transformations that seek to address social justice, promote economic equality, and improve public services. Possibly, Starmer’s leadership would put much emphasis on more funding to the NHS, climate change policies, and welfare reforms. This change could lead to a more fair economic policy in terms of income distribution and enhancement of public health amenities.
Another possible result is the formation of a coalition government if neither of the two parties attains a clear victory. This situation could mean more collaboration in policy formulation but may also translate to political uncertainty and slow decision-making. In the past, coalition governments in the UK have been accused of lacking coherence and being unable to fulfil most of the election pledges.
Surveys indicate that intensity is evenly split to show that the voters themselves are equally polarized on issues such as economic functions, and health care plans. The recent polls reveal that trust in economic stability has been the most important to the electorate at 45 percent, whereas 40 percent have preferred changes in healthcare.
Impact on Domestic Policies
The upcoming 2024 UK Election is expected to change the course of the country’s economic, social, and environmental measures. Politically, the election will define approaches to the ongoing cost-of-living crisis which has been worsened by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Anti-inflation measures, pro-growth policy, and public debt management shall remain core policies, and while Conservatives will champion prudential fiscal policies, Labour will champion fair economic reconstruction.
Another promising and high-priority area is social and healthcare policy shifts. The pandemic has put pressure on the NHS while keeping it a focus. Recent studies indicate that significant hikes in funding are required to enhance service delivery and shorten waiting lists.
The Conservative Party has been accused of perceived underfunding, while the Labour Party has urged for funding to reduce healthcare disparities. Moreover, mental health and the provision of social care services will likely be key areas needing reform in healthcare systems.
Impact on World Politics
The outcome of the 2024 UK Election will define Britain as a member of the global community, its interaction with the EU and USA, future trends in the global economy and environmental agenda. The UK membership in global organizations like the United Nations and NATO is likely to remain crucial, particularly in security and diplomacy. These outcomes may alter the extent to which the UK engages in these forums: the future UN security and humanitarian policies could be influenced.
After Brexit, the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union remains one of the focal points of British foreign policy. The Conservatives will probably continue to build on trade deals and employ a strong approach towards sovereignty matters in the UK, whereas Labour may strive for a closer alignment of the UK’s economy and regulation policies with the EU. The economic plans implemented in the UK after Brexit have already demonstrated some problems, where research also suggested a continuously adverse effect on trade with EU countries.
The relations between the UK and the US are also standing at a crossroads. A Conservative government would probably carry on the ‘special relationship’ solely based on commerce and defence, whereas a Labour government could focus on working together on issues like climate change, international development etc.
At the global economy level, the UK’s economic policies after the election will affect international markets and trade. The global investors and the trading partners will be keenly observing the UK’s policies on free trade and its policies for coming out of recession after the pandemic. Research shows that since Brexit, there has been a slow rate of economic growth in the UK which requires economic strategic policies to revive.
As for environmental legislation, the United Kingdom strives to be an example for others in combating climate change. The two major parties have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, but their strategies vary.
The conservatives therefore call for more market-driven approaches while the Labour Party advocates for significant state involvement and funding of green technology. Since the UK does have policies, these will set the standards for the environment as well as climate change agreements on the international level.
Aisha Noor works for The Diplomatic Insight.
